Broker Blog

Here are my remarks to our agents and staff who gathered for our 2010 Wine Country Group Kick-off last Friday at the Oakmont Golf Club:

"Good morning everyone. I’d like to propose a toast. Here’s to a new decade beginning in 2010; here’s to a new century beginning for Frank Howard Allen Realtors in 2010; and here’s to all of you, agents, staff, managers and guests – thanks for your tremendous efforts in 2009 and here’s to moving ahead! Cheers!

I’d like to thank those who worked so hard to pull this 2010 Kick-off together: Alma, Susie, Frank, Earl, Lori, and the marvelous decorating team of Carol Lexa and Danuta.

Also at the outset, I’d like to thank all of our staff and managers who work so hard to support our sales associates. Staff and managers, please stand up to be acknowledged. Earl and I particularly want to recognize Lori Sargiotto for all that she does to keep us on track. Otherwise, we would be a train wreck.

I’d also like to recognize those listed on the program as new agents to the firm. Can those who joined The Wine Country Group in 2009 please stand?

And, those listed on the program with 10+, 15+, up to 30+ years with the firm (how about that Frank Lazzarotto?). Will you also please stand an be acknowledged?

Thank you all.

In the music that has backed up the slides this morning, some of you may have recognized the Debussy piece entitled Clare de Lune. I included this piece in today’s program because it is part of a Youtube video that a friend passed along to us last week. I will share the link to this video with all of you in the next update to the Broker Blog,

www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=9xwCG0Ey2Mg

it is quite inspirational. Let me describe it a bit in the meantime.

It opens with the sound of the beginning phrase of Clare de Lune and pans in on the back of a young man sitting at the piano. The playing is beautiful. As the camera approaches, you can see that the young man is in a wheel chair. As the camera pans around the wheelchair you can see that his hands are in an awkward and bent position. The narrator starts to explain that the young man, Patrick Hughes, was born without eyes and with a condition that does not allow him to extend his arms – they are bent and crippled. But that when he plays music…”it is the music of possibility and the sound of promise”. The camera faces Patrick directly and the narrator asks: “How would you describe your disabilities?” And Patrick answers forcefully: “Not disabilities at all – more abilities.” Then it jumps to a scene of Patrick in full band gear playing trumpet for the Louisville University Marching Band with his father guiding him through the precise band drills in his wheelchair. It goes on for 6 minutes and it is quite wonderful.

For me, the video speaks to an attitude towards life – life as it comes to us. We all know how important a positive attitude is in living our lives, in doing our jobs, in being a salesperson. It is that positive attitude that allows us to see the possibilities, and the promise, in all the things around us.

Ahead is the theme for this Kick-off and this year. What lies ahead? None of us know, really. But personally, I am determined to get there – to move ahead. We will be completing our new Strategic Plan in the first quarter of this year and that will give us direction on how we will improve the brokerage and make it even better.

We had good results and we made strides in 2009. We are the market leader in the Northern California Wine Country. No other firm can claim that. You, our agents and staff, have worked to get us there. We have three agents in the top fifteen of the 2,755 agents in Sonoma County. We have the 2nd and 7th most productive agents out of the 637 agents in Napa County. We have six of the top 12 agents in Healdsburg, the top agents in Cloverdale and the top agent in Up Valley Napa. Diane Krause of our Sonoma office had the largest single residential sale in the Wine Country in 2009 at more than $6.4 million. Across Wine Country – you are obtaining spectacular results.

As most of you know, 2010 is the one hundred year anniversary of the founding of Frank Howard Allen Realtors. We are proud to be associated with a firm with such deep roots and with such a long record of leadership, success and contribution to the community. It’s one thing that the firm generously contributes to the community, but many of the agents and staff – likely the large majority – contribute in many ways. You serve on non-profit boards, serve as volunteers and mentors, coach little league or volleyball, etc. It’s a beauty of being a Realtor that, for the most part, we can direct our own time and serve our communities in many positive ways.

To celebrate the 100th anniversary of the firm, rather than a big party or bash, it has been decided to close the offices on Friday, June 25th and each of our staff, agents and managers will be involved in a community service day. We may all do one project, or we may let each office decide to choose their own way of providing service to the community – we will figure that out in the coming months. But block out the date of June 25 and send along your ideas for service projects.

Lourdes has created a 100 year logo that we will be using in our advertising, on our websites and elsewhere. We are having stickers made so we can put them on our letterhead, on our flyers, on whatever we send out, to promote the achievement of doing respected business in the North Bay for over a century.

In our awards this morning, we will be recognizing the leaders in our firm. To move forward – to get ahead – every organization needs leaders. We are grateful for the examples that these leaders provide for the rest of us. Know that Earl and I, and the managers and staff in the company will do all that we can to advance each of you into leadership positions so that we can celebrate again at the beginning of next year. I’m wishing us all success as we move ahead in 2010 and beyond.

Now, I’m happy to turn the program over to Susie for a Marketing Update. But first, I do have some commission checks here – it’s always fun for us to distribute commission checks! Congratulations.

Thank you all for being here and for all that you do".

Here are links to the new Market Share charts that Susie has created and the new Leading Real Estate Companies of the World and Luxury Portfolio sign riders that we introduced at the kick-off.

The following awards were recognized at the Kick-off:

Top Producers for the Wine Country Group for 2009:
Daniel Casabonne: Dollar Volume ($32,000,000); Units Closed (65) and Listings (76).

Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker (Team): Units Closed (86) and Listings (87)

Top Producers by Office:
St. Helena Office: Linda Alioto: Dollar Volume, Units Closed and Listings. (Linda is the Top Producer among all agents for Units Closed in Up Valley in 2009).

Sonoma Office: Daniel Casabonne: Dollar Volume, Units Closed and Listings. (Daniel is the Top Producer among all agents in Sonoma in 2009 for Dollar Volume and Units Closed).

Napa Office: Cheri Stanley: Dollar Volume and Units Closed. (Cheri is the 2nd Top Producer among all agents in Napa County in 2009 for Units Closed).

David Barker: Listings

Healdsburg Office: Ann Amtower: Dollar Volume and Units Closed

Deke DeKay and Diane Harris (Team): Units Closed

Jana Jones: Listings

Cloverdale: Ron and Jane Pavelka: Dollar Volume, Units Closed and Listings. (Ron and Jane are the Top Producer among all agents in Cloverdale in 2009 for Dollar Volume and Units Closed).

Office of the Year: Sonoma Office

Employee of the Year: Susie Savino

2009 Top Performers: (These agents made substantial strides in improving their production (or maintaining their high production standards) in 2009:
Lisa Albertson; Linda Alioto; Ann Amtower; David Barker; Daniel Casabonne; Mike Caselli; Sheila Deignan; Deke DeKay; Doug Del Fava; Diane Harris; Mari Johnson; Diane Krause; Susan Montgomery; Susan Parker; Lark Raymond; Rico Ruthnick; Lisa Smith; Barbara Sommerville; Cheri Stanley and Faeli Vyn

Chairman's Circle of Excellence: Lisa Albertson; Linda Alioto; David Barker; Daniel Casabonne; Mike Caselli; Sheila Deignan; Deke DeKay & Diane Harris; Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker; Diane Krause; Ron and Jane Pavelka and Cheri Stanley

President's Gold Award of Distinction: Ann Amtower

President's Silver Award of Distinction: Beth Bruno; Herb Heil; Mari Johnson; Jana Jones; Susan Montgomery; Rico Ruthnick and Lisa Smith; and Bill Streett

President's Bronze Award of Distinction: Pat Brown; Gina Clyde; Joyce Davison; Erin George; Aimee Greco; Dee Grohmann; Mara Kahn; Carol Lexa; Diane Litchfield; Robyn Makaruk; Kendra Martin; Lark Raymond; Constance Sharpe; Corrie Sterbentz; Tish Thames and Faeli Vyn.

Marketing Tip: This is borrowed from Rick Deluca. How to succeed in marketing to your geographical farm:

1) CONSISTENCY. They must hear from you at least once per month; month after month. It may take 6 to 12 months before you finally generate business from this area. They need to see you are persistent in your
communication and they can count on you. They may have had other agents "work their neighborhood" only to never hear from them again after 3 or 4 months. Show them you are different.
2) BECOME AN EXPERT. No one should know more about the local market activity than you. Gather data about the neighborhood and make this part of your ongoing contact with them. Let them see that you know
what is selling, how much it sells for, how long it took and who tried, but failed in their attempt to sell. They need to see you as their source of real estate information for the area.
3) DEVELOP A RELATIONSHIP. Do your best to become more than just a real estate agent who lives in the area. Go out of your way so they can "see" you and not just hear from you. Whether it's organizing a
neighborhood garage sale or volunteering for neighborhood activities, creating an electronic newsletter just for that area, or anything else, get yourself out there so people can see who you are and they begin to connect the real estate expert to an actual neighbor.

Closings: As far as jumping into the business in 2010, the following agents had closings in the last three weeks of January: Carol Lexa (Healdsburg); Corrie Sterbentz (Sonoma); Lisa Albertson (Sonoma); Mari Johnson (Sonoma); Tammy Owens (Sonoma); Jeff Veness (St. Helena); Mike Caselli (Sonoma); Kendra Martin (Sonoma); Erin George (Sonoma); Ellen Politz (Napa) and Penelope La Montagne (Healdsburg).

The following agents had two closings during this period: Faeli Vyn (Napa); Linda Alioto (St. Helena); Aimee Greco (Napa); Dee Grohmann (Healdsburg); Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker (Kenwood) and Ron and Jane Pavelka (Cloverdale).

Deke DeKay and Diane Harris of our Healdsburg office had three closings during this period.

David Barker (Napa), Herb Heil (Sonoma) and the Foss Creek team of Susan Montgomery and Amanda Stampley each had four closings during this period.

Sheila Deignan of our Sonoma office had five closings during this three weeks, and Daniel Casabonne topped it off with seven closings during the past three weeks - more than two per week.

Congratulations to all!

From one of my favorite websites, www.wordsmith.org, comes the following as a wish to you for the year:

Philosopher John Locke (1632-1704) once said, "Our incomes are like our shoes; if too small, they gall and pinch us; but if too large, they cause us to stumble and to trip." In the new year, may your incomes be like a nice pair of shoes, not too small, but large enough to slip into and be comfortable.

Wine Country Group Summary for December, 2009 and for the full year – 2009

Frank Howard Allen Realtors, The Wine Country Group, closed 75 transaction sides in the December, 2009, more than in any December in our history. This is 36% more than we closed in December, 2008 (55) and a solid 200% more than we closed in December, 2007 (25). The dollar volume ($31M) was 24% ahead of the volume last December ($25M). Our open sales for the month (43) were slightly behind of that for December, 2008 (46), but our new listings for the month (36) were slightly ahead of that of a year ago (29). Our listing inventory (175 units) is 7% behind that of a year ago (187) while in most of our market areas, inventory is down as much as 20-60% year over year. The average asking price ($725,000) of our current listings is 3% higher than this time a year ago ($711,000). Our pending sales at the end of December (102 units) total $51M in transaction volume compared to 69 units and $36M a year ago. Our agents are working hard to keep us ahead of the competition in most of our markets in year over year productivity.

For the full year of 2009, we closed 764 sides compared to 628 in 2008 and 534 in 2007. This is the highest number of closings since 2004 when we closed 797 sides. So, we are well on the way to advancing our previous high water mark. Despite the rise in units, we were somewhat below in dollar volume (lower sales prices) in 2009. We achieved $317,000,000 in volume in 2009 compared to $355,000,000 in 2008 and compared to our high of $537,000,000 in 2005.

We remain solidly number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets. Frank Howard Allen Realtors achieved number one market share in dollar volume for 2009 in both Sonoma and Marin Counties when one includes all licensed offices (including The Wine Country Group) and corporately owned offices. This is a great achievement for the Sonoma County agents who we affectionately refer to as “Team One”.

In the past twelve months in the Sonoma Valley, we have closed twice as many transactions (239) as our nearest competitors and our agents have achieved a 27.7% market share in unit volume. For 2009, our Healdsburg agents have increased our market share to 26.8% from 19.6% in 2008 in unit volume.

Our Napa & St. Helena offices have generated a 64% increase in transaction sides (261) for 2009 compared to 2008. Our Napa County offices have increased their market share by 35% this year while our competitors have had flat or decreasing market share.

We will celebrate our many successes at our annual company “Kick-off” on January 29th and we will focus on “Moving Ahead” in 2010 and beyond.

December, 2009 - Market Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Napa County (536) was 24% below the inventory (706) at this time last year and is the lowest inventory of available homes since February of 2006, three and one half years ago. The decreasing trend in inventory has moderated, however, and it is reasonable to expect an increase in inventory in the spring of 2010 instead of the decline that we saw through all of 2009. New sales (129) were 32% ahead of the pace a year ago. The average price per square foot of the homes closed in December was $237/sf, an 18% increase since February when the per square foot price was $201.00. American Canyon has just 1.2 months supply of inventory and the town of Napa has 3.9 months – so it is Up Valley Napa County that has an overhang of inventory. 29% of the available inventory in the county remains “Up Valley” at the end of December.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville), had an inventory of 157 units at the end of December. This compares with 142 at the end of December, 2008, so it has been generally consistent throughout the year. Sales for the month (10) were the same as two months and were a bit below of the number of sales (13) posted in December, ‘08. The Up Valley market seems to be gaining some traction at the end of this year. Available listings in Up Valley represent 29% percent of the overall Napa County inventory, a relatively high percentage.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,093) in Sonoma County at the end of December was 40% lower than a year ago. New sales (471) in December were 8% ahead of the pace in December, 2008 (436). The median price of homes closed in December in Sonoma County was $350,000. This is 13% higher than the medium price of closed homes in December, 2008 ($310,000) and 23% above the low median price established in February of 2009 ($285,000).

Based on the current sales pace, there is only a 2.3 month supply of inventory.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (132) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of December was 21% below that for December, 2008. There were 31 new sales for the month compared to 34 a month ago and 27 in December, ‘08.

The median sales price for the 33 homes that closed in December was $486,000 compared to a median price of $429,000 a year ago and well ahead of the lowest median price ($313,000) set for the year in April of 2009. There were 33 closings in the Sonoma Valley in December and our Sonoma Valley offices closed 36 units. We obviously handled some outside of the Valley, but it seems we got a good share of the Valley closings for the month.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (63) in Healdsburg at the end of December was 22% below that of the available inventory (81) in December, ‘08. This is the lowest inventory in Healdsburg since March 0f 2006. New sales (14) remained steady in December. The Healdsburg market seems to have regained some momentum.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (38) at the end of December, 2009 was 49% lower than a year ago. Sales in Cloverdale for the month of December (9) was equal to that of a month ago and to that of December, 2008. The median price of the homes sold in Cloverdale in the month of December was $255,000, 14% lower than a year ago, but up 28% above the low for the year of $200,000 in March of 2009.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (41) at the end of December was 58% lower than the inventory (97) in December, 2008 and was the lowest inventory since May of 2005, four and a half years ago. There were 28 new sales of homes and condominiums in Windsor in December which is fairly consistent with the sales pace throughout the year. The current market has 1.5 months of supply based on the current sales pace. Prices have stabilized at slightly over $200 per square foot.

Solano County: Since we closed 102 homes in Solano County in 2009, we keep an eye on the trends there as well. Inventory stands at 736 units – 68% lower than in December ’08, but it has climbed in the last two months. New sales for the month of December totaled 565 units – 6% higher than last year. This creates just a 1.4 month supply of inventory at the current sales pace. The average price per square foot of closed homes for the month was $135.00, up 13% from the low of $119.00/sf registered in April of 2009.

Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

FHA Wine Country Group Kickoff:  Be sure to attend the 2010 Wine Country Group Kickoff on Friday, January 29, 8:30 am to 11:30 at the Oakmont Country Club.  Celebrations, Awards, Inspiration, Photos, Cheers and Tears - see you there!

Training:  Management training with Sandy Schaefer starts this Friday, January 15. Four sessions of leadership work to improve you skills and your business.

New training programs on the horizon.

Closings:  Closings for the last week of 2009 and the first week of 2010 include: Debby Hendershot (Healdsburg); Linda Alioto (St. Helena); Louis Horta (Napa); Ryan De Mello (Napa); Diane Litchfield (Sonoma); Mike Caselli (Sonoma); Mari Johnson (Sonoma); Joan Harrington (Sonoma); Jane and Ron Pavelka (Cloverdale); Pam Giusto (Sonoma); Aimee Greco (Napa) and the Foss Creek team of Susan Montgomery and Amanda Stampley (Healdsburg).

The following agents had two closings during this two week period: Steve and Marla Ericson (St. Helena); Liz Manfree (St. Helena); David Barker (Napa); Jana Jones (Healdsburg) and Cheri Stanley (Napa).

Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker of our Kenwood office had four closings and Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma office had five closings for these two weeks.

Well done for all and carry on in 2010!

“The way you do anything is the way you do everything.”   Tom Waits

Thanks to the hard work of our agents and staff, we continue to be a leading firm in the Wine Country Markets which we serve.  We have a bang up finish to the year with 44 transactions scheduled to close this week!  Even if some get delayed, it is a solid finish to a solid year – thanks to everyone.

Hold the date of January 15 if you are planning to take part in our second series of Management Training with Sandy Schaefer.  And hold the morning of January 29 open for the Wine Country Group kick-off.

Will have a summary of our performance and market performance for the end of the year early in January.  For now, I’d like to recognize those agents with closings since the last Broker Blog update on 11/15.  For the dates between 11/16 and 12/27, the following enjoyed closings:

Ellen Politz of our Napa office had her first closing as a new licensee – in fact she had three during this period.  Wishing her many, many more.

Cherie Chooljian of our Sonoma office had her first two closings since joining the Wine Country Group several months ago.  Again, wishing her many more!

Others with closings during this period include:  Erin George (Sonoma);  Leo Merle (Sonoma);  Jeff Veness (St. Helena);  Gina Clyde (Sonoma);  Pat and Norm Brown (Sonoma);  Susan Irvine (Sonoma);  Herb Heil (Sonoma);  Beth Bruno (Healdsburg);  Felice Torri (Sonoma);  Dave Reynolds (Healdsburg);  Faili Vyn (Napa);  Chuck Post (Sonoma);  Carol Figoni (Healdsburg);  Lisa Smith (Healdsburg);  Bill Streett (Sonoma);  Mara Kahn (Sonoma);  Barbara Greenhill (Sonoma);  Tish Thames (Sonoma);  Mari Johnson (Sonoma);  Ann Amtower (Healdsburg);  Kent Mitchell (Healdsburg);  Debby Hendershot (Healdsburg) and Lisa Albertson (Sonoma/Healdsburg).

The following agents had two closings during this period:  Sally Kros (Kelseyville);  Mike Caselli (Sonoma);   Aimee Greco (Napa);  Kendra Martin (Sonoma) and Pam Giusto (Sonoma).

Joyce Davidson (Sonoma);  Jane and Ron Pavelka (Healdsburg/Cloverdale); Deke Dekay and Diane Harris (Healdsburg) and Cheri Stanley (Napa) had three closings each.

Sheila Deignan (Sonoma) and Constance Sharpe (Glen Ellen) enjoyed four closings each.

David Barker (Napa) and the Foss Creek Condominium team of Susan Montgomery, Amanda Stampley, Lisa Albertson and Gina Clyde had five closings each.

Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker had six closings.

And Daniel Casabonne tops the list with a whopping ten closings during this six week period.

Congratulations to all and carry on into 2010!

Moving Ahead in 2010, and beyond, wishing everyone a Healthy and Happy New Year.

Market Trends: We have added current Market Graphs and commentary to our website (www.winecountrygroup.com) for each of our Wine Country Markets. Whenever you need to know what’s going on in Wine Country, just visit our Market Trends web pages.

This month, there are some really pronounced milestones in the market. Please review the Market Analysis below, particularly for Sonoma County and Napa County – this is good news for our markets!

Wine Country Group Summary for October, 2009

We closed 76 transaction sides in the October, 2009, more than in any October since 2004 when we closed 83. This is 27% more than we closed in October, 2008 (60). The dollar volume ($33M) was 10% ahead of the volume last October ($30M). Our open sales for the month (74) were a healthy 61% of that for October, 2008 (46), so things are looking good moving into the mid Fall. Our listing inventory (224 units) is 10% ahead of a year ago (203) while in most of our market areas, inventory is down as much as 40% year over year. The average asking price ($929,000) of our current listings is 34% higher than this time a year ago ($695,000). Our pending sales at the end of October (136 units) total $74M in transaction volume compared to 84 units and $49M a year ago. Our agents are working hard to keep us ahead of the competition in most of our markets in year over year productivity.

We remain solidly number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets. In the past twelve months in the Sonoma Valley, we have closed twice as many transactions (231) as our nearest competitors and our agents have achieved a 27.3% market share. For the first ten months of this year, our Healdsburg agents have increased our market share to 25% from 18% for the first ten months of 2008.

Our Napa & St. Helena offices have generated a 31% increase in transaction sides (218) for the first ten months of 2009 compared to 2008. Our Napa County offices have increased their market share by 25% this year while our competitors have had flat or decreasing market share.

We respect the hard work that all of our agents are doing in these changing and tough times to help us to remain market leaders.

October, 2009 - Market Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in Napa County (590) was 33% below the inventory (881) at this time last year and is the lowest inventory of available homes since March of 2006, three and one half years ago. New sales (154) were a whopping 60% ahead of the pace a year ago and were the highest monthly level since August of 2005. Of the 154 new sales in Napa County in October, 103 of them were in the City of Napa. This is a 87% increase in the number of sales in the City from this time last year and the highest number of sales in the City since September of 2006. This certainly signals strength in the local housing market. The average price per square foot of the homes closed in October was $270/sf, a 38% increase since February when the per square foot price was $201.00. The county in general is down to 3.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. American Canyon has just 1.4 months supply of inventory and the town of Napa has 3.4 months – so it is Up Valley Napa County that has an overhang of inventory. 31% of the available inventory in the county remains “Up Valley” at the end of October.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville), had an inventory of 182 units at the end of October. This compares with 189 at the end of October, 2008, so it has been generally consistent throughout the year. Sales for the month (14) remained close to the level of last month and were 27% ahead of the number of sales (11) posted in October, ‘08. The Up Valley market seems to be gaining some traction at the end of this year. Available listings in Up Valley represent 31% percent of the overall Napa County inventory, a relatively high percentage. The average asking price of the current Up Valley inventory is $2.1M compared to the average price of the homes that closed in October being $1.0M so the high end remains the weakest segment of the market as in other Wine Country markets.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,308) in Sonoma County at the end of October was 44% lower than a year ago. This is the lowest level of inventory in the County for any month since December of 2005. New sales (620) in October were 13% ahead of the pace in October, 2008 (551) and 17% ahead of that of last month (528). This is the highest level of new home sales in the County since August of 2005 – marking a new milestone in the housing recovery. The median price of homes closed in October in Sonoma County was $344,000. For the first time since June of 2006, the year over year median price was higher – in this case 3% higher. That means that the median price of sold homes has been lower on a year over year basis for over three years and now has reversed that trend.

The average price per square foot of properties sold in October ($244/sf) was equal to that of a year ago and 13% ahead of the low price per square foot ($216/sf) experienced in January of 2009. Indications are if you bought then, you have experienced some appreciation. The market seems to be certainly segmented and stuck in the higher ranges as the average asking price of unsold inventory is $1.1M compared to the average price of the units sold in October being $462K. Based on the current sales pace, there is only a 2.1 month supply of inventory.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (181) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of October was 21% below that for October, 2008, but it has be relatively steady since December of ’08 – ranging from 166 t0 200 units. There were 42 new sales for the month (compared to 35 a month ago and 33 in October, ‘08). The Sonoma Valley market also seems to be stalled in the higher end as the average asking price of the inventory is $1.1M compared to the average sales price of units sold in October being $462K. There were 31 closings in the Sonoma Vally in October and our Sonoma Valley offices closed 26 units. We obviously handled some outside of the Valley, but it seems we got a good share of the Valley closings for the month.

Healdsburg Trends: New sales (22) in October remained at a relatively high level and is 37% of the sales pace (16) a year ago. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (95) in Healdsburg at the end of October was slightly below that of last month (101) and it was 15% below the available inventory (112) in October, ‘08. This compares to inventory that is 44% lower in the County overall. Months of inventory based on current sales rate is 4.3. The Healdsburg market continues to show signs of rebounding.

Cloverdale Trends: Sales in Cloverdale for the month of October (13) remained about equal to the month earlier when there were 15 sales and was about equal with the 15 sales in October of 2008. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (31) at the end of October, 2009 is about equal to that of last month and it was 66% lower than a year ago. It is the lowest level of available inventory since May of 2005 – four and a half years ago. There remains only a 2.4 month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Cloverdale in the month of October rose again to the 300,000 level which has been pretty consistent through the year. The median price of homes and condominiums sold in Cloverdale has bounced back from a low of $200,000 in March of this year.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (49) at the end of October was 60% lower than the inventory (122) in October, 2008. There were 38 new sales of homes and condominiums in Windsor in October which is an increase of 31% from the level (29) in October ‘08. The current market has 1.3 months of supply based on the current sales pace. Prices have stabilized at slightly over $200 per square foot.

Solano County: Since we have closed 89 homes in Solano County this year so far, we keep an eye on the trends there as well. Inventory is down to 736 units – 72% lower than in October ’08. New sales for the month of October totaled 745 units – 27% higher than last year – and more than the number of available units at the beginning of the month (711). This creates just a one month supply of inventory at the current sales pace. The average price per square foot of closed homes for the month was $128.00, up each month from the low of $119.00/sf registered in April of this year.

Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Management Training: Our first program in Management Training with Sandy Schaefer was a big success, so we are planning our next program. All agents manage their own business, if not an office, so everyone learns key skills from this program – particularly in leadership and planning. The next program will begin on January 15 and 16 and continue on the 22nd and 29th. We are subsidizing the cost to $250.00 per person including course materials. If you are interested in attending, please let me know.

Business Planning for 2010: It’s that time of year to plan for the coming year. Your office managers have business planning forms to assist you and I recommend you consider the following questions as you undertake setting your plans for next year:

1. Review 2009 by asking these questions: Did you meet your goals? If not, why not? Where did your leads come from? Where did your sales come from? How would you describe your situation now?

2. Write down your goals. I like what Stephen Covey says about starting with the end in sight. What numbers (income, houses sold, etc.) do you want in December of 2010? What specific steps will you need to take to reach those numbers? Who will hold you accountable for reaching your goals?

3. Analyze your operations. How do you accomplish your goals? Are you being efficient? Who will do your non-dollar productive activities? How do you handle leads now and what can you do to improve this? What do your key team members need so they can help you achieve the goals? Do you have an ideal weekly and daily schedule that helps your business run smoothly? Do you have systems in place that make overall operations run efficiently?

4. Evaluate your business strategy. Perform a SWOT analysis (What are your Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats for 2009?). How will you capitalize on your strengths and opportunities? How will you strengthen your weaknesses and deal with threats?

5. Examine your sales and marketing efforts. What marketing channels worked and which ones failed? Can you adjust the ones that failed and make them more successful? If so, how? Can you make the successful ones even better? If so, how? How will potential clients know you exist and when they realize you exist, do your marketing messages compel them to contact you? How will your ideal customer evaluate your services and make decisions? Are your scripts effective? If not, how will you make them more powerful? Do your scripts reflect the current market?

6. Get a handle on your finances. Do you have an accounting software package or system that gives you profit and loss statements, balance sheets and budget projections? Are you attaching costs to your efforts so that you can see if you’re getting the best return on your investments of time and money? Are you tracking your results?

Please let me know if I can assist you in anyway in developing your 2010 business plan.

FHA-Wine Country Group Kick-off: Save the date: January 29, 2010 for the Wine Country Group kick-off and Recognition Event. We will be returning to the Oakmont Golf Club and will have a fun time and an inspiring speaker. The program will begin at 8:30 am and run until 11:00. Save the date!

Staffing over the Holidays: Please be aware that our support staff will have a holiday on Friday, November 27th, following Thanksgiving.

Link to Home Buyer Credit info: Here's a link to CAR's outline on the extended Home Buyer Tax Credit. This includes higher income limits and non-first time buyers as well as first time buyers. Share this with your clients! http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/taxcreditextended/

Closings: Congratulations to the following for closings in the last thirty days: New agent to the WCG Liz Manfree (St. Helena) enjoyed her first closing with the firm. Wishing her many more!
Others with sales include: Carol Lexa (Healdsburg); Herb Heil (Sonoma); Terri D’Amico (Sonoma); Charlie Laughlin (Napa); Helaine Forte (Napa); Bill Streett (Sonoma); Diane Krause (Sonoma); Joyce Davison (Sonoma); Erin George (Sonoma); Susan Irvine (Sonoma); Alicia Robledo (Sonoma); Howard Powell (Sonoma); Gina Clyde (Sonoma); Faeli Vyn (Napa); Frank Lazzarotto (Sonoma); and Hank Lane (Healdsburg).

The following agents had two closings in this period: Sheila Deignan (Sonoma); Lark Raymond (Napa); Mari Johnson (Sonoma); Leo Merle (Sonoma); and Jane and Ron Pavelka (Healdsburg/Cloverdale).

Corrie Sterbentz (Sonoma); Lisa Smith (Healdsburg) and Susan Montgomery (Healdsburg) had three closings each.

The Foss Creek Condominium team (Lisa Albertson, Gina Clyde, Susan Montgomery and Amanda Stampley) had four closings for the month. Also with four closings were David Barker (Napa); Lisa Albertson (Sonoma/Healdsburg); and Jana Jones (Healdsburg).

Daniel Casabonne (Sonoma) and Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker (Kenwood) had six closings each during the past month.

And, Cheri Stanley tops the bill with nine closings in the past month – over two a week – a healthy pace!

Congratulations to all.

Extraordinary Things Happen When Our Sign Goes Up:
This is the new “tag line” that we are featuring on our website and in our advertising. Some of the extraordinary things are:
Reliable Communication; Intelligent Marketing; Extensive Networking; Expert Negotiation; Hands-on Management; Streamlined Escrows; One Hundred Years of Experience; Quick Sales = Happy Clients.

Let us know if you think of some other Extraordinary Things that Happen When our Sign Goes Up.

Training:  Next Legal Update Date is: Tuesday, November 3, San Rafael

NorBAR is sponsoring trainings on the new RPA to be released in November. Look for trainings in your local area and we will look into bringing a resource into our offices to cover the topics.

BAREIS Photo Contest: I know that you are all talented photographers. You can get your photo on the BAREIS home page and earn a free month of dues if you submit a winning photo. Deadline is this Weds., Oct. 20 at 5 pm, so get those photos to sabrina@norcalmls.com.

Wine Country Group Summary for September, 2009:

We closed 210 transaction sides in the 3rd Q of 2009, more than in any 3rd Q since 2005 when we closed 212. This is 16% more than we closed in the 3rd Q 2008 (181). The dollar volume was 5% below the volume last year due to the lower average prices of our transactions. On the positive side looking ahead, the average asking price ($855,000) of our 229 listings as of October 12 was 5% higher than this time a year ago – and inventory is actually ahead of a year ago at 229 listings compared to 207. This is ahead of the general market conditions where inventory is lower year over year in our markets.

Our September results were strong month over month and year over year and our pending sales as of 10/12/09 (129) are 46% ahead of that of a year ago. Accounting for lower price points, the current dollar volume of our pending sales ($65M) is just 14% ahead of a year ago ($57M).

We remain solidly number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets. In the past twelve months, we closed 2.4 times the number of transactions as our nearest competitors in our Sonoma office. We increased our market share in Sonoma for the first nine months of this year to 28.4% compared to 25.5% a year ago. Our Healdsburg office has increased it’s market share for the first nine months of the year to 26.5% from 19.4% for the first nine months of 2008.

Our Napa & St. Helena offices have generated a 29% increase in transaction sides (197) for the first nine months of 2009 compared to 2008. We are continuing to grow our Napa Valley business at a healthy pace. We respect the hard work that all of our agents are doing in these tough times to help us to remain market leaders.

September, 2009 - Market Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Napa County (614) was 29% below the inventory (867) at this time last year and it was equal to the inventory last month. New sales (149) were a whopping 62% ahead of the pace a year ago. The average price per square foot of the homes closed in September remained the same as last month, $263.00 per sf, a steady increase since February when the per square foot price was $201.00. The county in general is down to 4.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. American Canyon has just one months supply of inventory and the town of Napa has 3.9 months – so it is Up Valley Napa County that has an overhang of inventory. 30% of the available inventory in the county is located “Up Valley” at the end of September.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville), had an inventory of 184 units at the end of September. This compares with 165 at the end of September, 2008. Sales for the month (16) remained at the level of last month and were well ahead of the 4 sales that posted in September, ‘08. Perhaps the market is starting to finally warm up. Unlike our other Wine Country markets, inventory is up 12 % from a year ago, but it has decreased over the past three months. Up Valley available listings represent 30% percent of the overall Napa County inventory – an unusual occurrence.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,393) in Sonoma County at the end of September was 42% lower than a year ago. New sales (594) in September were 13% ahead of the pace in September, 2008 and equal to that of last month. The median price of homes closed in September in Sonoma County was $325,000, equal to that of a month ago and 6% lower than a year ago. Based on the current sales pace, there is only a 2.3 month supply of inventory, either an indication of a pending sellers market, or, more likely, a slowing of the sales pace.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (191) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of September was 19% below that for September, 2008 and is equal to the inventory of last month. There were 39 new sales for the month (compared to 43 a month ago and 25 in September, ‘08).

Healdsburg Trends: New sales (18) in September remained at a relatively high level and similar to the sales pace (15) a year ago. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (101) in Healdsburg at the end of September was slightly below that of last month (109) and it was 11% below the available inventory (113) in September, ‘08. This compares to inventory that is 42% lower in the County overall. The Healdsburg market continues to show signs of rebounding.

Cloverdale Trends: Sales in Cloverdale for the month of September (14) weakened from the month earlier when there were 25 sales and was about equal with the 13 sales in September of 2008. The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (36) at the end of September, 2009 is about equal to that of last month and it was 58% lower than a year ago. There remains only a 2.6 month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Cloverdale in the month of September dropped to $278,000 from $345,000 in August, but it was higher than the $275,000 median price of homes closed in September, ’08. The median price of homes sold in Cloverdale has bounced around from a low of $200,000 to a high of $345,000 in the last twelve months, but this is the first month where we have seen year over year increase in the median price of sold homes in any of the markets that we serve in the Wine Country.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (51) at the end of September was remarkably less than the number of new sales in the market in September which was 54. Inventory is 62% lower than a year ago and sales are 103% ahead of a year ago. The current status of the market is less than one month supply of inventory. Prices have stabilized at slightly over $200 per square foot. It remains interesting that there were new sales of 35 units, 33 units and 35 units in May, June and July of this year, but there were closings of only 30 units, 19 units and 24 units in July, August and September. So, we are either having delays in financing – which seems pretty prevalent at this time – or, there are a lot of distressed sales which can take longer to close, or we are having a lot of cancellations.

Solano County: Since we have closed 81 homes in Solano County this year so far, we keep an eye on the trends there as well. Inventory is down to 711 units – 74% lower than in September ’08. New sales for the month of September totaled 748 units – 31% higher than last year. This creates just a one month supply of inventory at the current sales pace. The average price per square foot of closed homes for the month was $130.00, up each month from the low of $119.00/sf registered in April of this year.

Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Closings: Congratulations to Charlie Laughlin of our Napa office who had his first closing with FHA-WCG during this recent period. He also served ably on the Legal Update agent panel this morning! The following agents also had closings from 9/14 to 10/09. There were a lot of them – which is a good thing!

Randy Haak, Glen Ellen; Corrie Sterbentz, Sonoma; Ann Amtower, Healdsburg; Dee Grohmann, Healdsburg; Bill Streett, Sonoma; Faeli Vyn, Napa; Barbara Sommerville, Sonoma; Deke Dekay and Diane Harris, Healdsburg; Dan Gallagher, Sonoma; Carol Lexa, Healdsburg; Lark Raymond, Napa; Gina Clyde, Sonoma/Healdsburg; Dave Reynolds, Healdsburg; Linda Alioto, St. Helena; Jana Jones, Healdsburg; Hank Lane, Healdsburg; Susan Montgomery, Healdsburg; Helaine Forte, Napa; and Patty Keiser, Glen Ellen.

The following agents had two closings over the past month: Mara Kahn, Sonoma; and Herb Heil, Sonoma.

The following agents had three closings in the past thirty days: Erick Rothfeld, Sonoma; Lisa Albertson, Sonoma and Erin George, Sonoma.

Cheri Stanley of our Napa Office had four closings.

Mike Caselli and Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma Office and David Barker of our Napa office each had six closings for this period.

Jane and Ron Pavelka based in Cloverdale had seven closings for this period and, to cap it off, Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker of our Kenwood office.had a whopping fourteen closings in the past month – over three a week – something to strive for!

Well done by all and congratulations!

Welcome to Scott Rader as a Partner in the Wine Country Group: We issued a Press Release this week welcoming long term North Bay real estate broker Scott Rader as a partner in the Wine Country Group. Scott has worked with our firm over the past twelve years and was responsible for expanding the Healdsburg office and establishing offices in Windsor and Cloverdale. Scott will be a great resource for the firm and it's agents. If you would like a copy of the Press Release, just let me know.

Seven New Rules for First Time Home Buyers: A recent article by Ron Lieber in the New York Times suggests seven new rules for first time home buyers. Of course, if you have been in the business for a while, you will recognize some of these rules as old rules before the lenders got goofy - in any case they are the rules of the day:
1. Start with the basics: A minimum of 20% down payment; a fixed rate loan; don't spend more than 35% of your pretax income on mortgage, property tax and property insurance payments. With student and other loans included, do not exceed 45% of your pretax income.
2. Consider your income: The best case for "stretching" for a house is that first time buyers in their 20s and 30s income will grow more quickly than older people buying their second or third home.
3. Bow to Unknowns: There are many reasons that a young couple, with both individuals working at present, may find that they need to live on one income, or on one full time and one part time income. It is wise to do financial modelling for these circumstances.
4. Map out expenses: Studies show that many homeowners underestimate the cost of maintaining a home. One source recommends budgeting 3.6% of the original purchase price of a home per year for maintainance and 4.5% of the original purchase price per year for an older home.
5. Buy Best (or Cheapest): Some suggest buying your "dream home" if you can afford it - but if you can't, don't buy the "next best thing", buy a less expensive starter home that will allow you to save towards that dream home later on.
6. Stretch the House: This refers to stretching your time in a home and making continual "expansion improvements" to the first home rather than incurring all of the transactional costs of buying a series of homes.
7. The Eight Hour Rule: All of the above rules vary from circumstance to circumstance. The old fall back "eight hour rule" says that if the impending purchase and future ownership expenses are keeping you up at night - maybe the purchase should be postponed until you are more comfortable with the decision.

Wine Country Group Summary for August, 2009

We closed 70 transaction sides in August, more than in any August since 2005 when we closed 75. This is 15% more than we closed in August, 2008 (61). But, as has been the case most of the year, the dollar volume was 15% below the volume last year. On the positive side looking ahead, the average asking price ($900,000) of our 250 listings at the end of August remained 32% higher than this time a year ago – so higher selling prices are on the horizon. Our Sonoma and Healdsburg offices had particularly strong results in August.

We continue to receive multiple offers on our REO listings as the demand is strong and the supply has weakened. We are still expecting a second wave of foreclosure properties as our Bank of America partner is expecting their nationwide inventory of REOs on the market to jump from 30,000 to 70,000 in the next six to twelve months.

We remain solidly number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets. In the past twelve months, we closed 2.4 times the number of transactions as our nearest competitors in our Sonoma office. Our Healdsburg office has increased it’s market share for the first eight months of the year to 25.4% from 18.1% for the first eight months of 2008. Our Napa office has generated a 41% increase in transaction sides (178) for the first eight months of 2009 compared to 2008. The firm just ahead of us in market share in Napa only increased their business by 16% in comparison, so we are continuing to grow our Napa Valley business at a healthy pace. We respect the hard work that all of our agents are doing in these tough times to help us to remain market leaders.

(Late update: We've opened at least 16 escrows in the past two days. Either the agents have been holding out putting them "on the board", or it's gotten a bit hot!)

August, 2009 - Market Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of August in Napa County (613) was 31% below the inventory (884) at this time last year and represents the tenth month in a row that inventory has fallen month over month. New sales (174) were a whopping 75% ahead of the pace a year ago. The average price per square foot of the homes closed in August reached $266.00, a steady increase since February when the per square foot price was $201.00. The county in general is down to 3.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. American Canyon has just one months supply of inventory and the town of Napa has 3.4 months – so it is Up Valley Napa County that has an overhang of inventory. One third of the available inventory in the county is located “Up Valley” at the end of August. Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville), though heavy in inventory with 203 units, did experience and up tick in sales in August to 17. This is the highest number of new sales in any month in Up Valley since April of 2007 when there were 20 sales. Perhaps the market is starting to finally warm up. Unlike our other Wine Country markets, inventory is up 12 % from a year ago, but it has decreased over the past three months. Up Valley available listings represent 33% percent of the overall Napa County inventory – a very unusual occurrence. Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGrahix reports.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,438) in Sonoma County at the end of August was 44% lower than a year ago. New sales (648) in August were 40% ahead of the pace in August, 2008 and 13% ahead of last month. The median price of homes closed in August in Sonoma County was $325,000, slightly off from a month ago, but a solid 14% ahead of the low median price point of $285,000 that was reached in February. Based on the current sales pace, there is only a 2.2 month supply of inventory, either an indication of a pending sellers market, or, more likely, a slowing of the sales pace. Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (190) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of August was 21% below that for August, 2008 and 11% lower than the inventory of last month. There were 45 new sales for the month (compared to 38 a month ago and 30 in August, ‘08). The median sales price in Sonoma Valley in August dropped to $370,000 from $504,000 last month, so there were fewer sales in the high end and perhaps more condominium closings. Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Healdsburg Trends: New sales (21) in August remained at a relatively high level. They were 91% ahead of the new sales pace a year ago. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (109) in Healdsburg at the end of August was slightly higher than that of last month (104) but was 13% below the available inventory (125) in August, ‘08. This market is certainly showing signs of rebounding. The average days on market for the 20 closed sales in Healdsburg last month was 91 days which is a more rapid turnover than most of the past year. Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Cloverdale Trends: Sales in Cloverdale for the month of August remained strong at 24. This is the highest sales pace for a single months since February of 2005 when there were also 24 sales. The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (37) at the end of August, 2009 is slightly ahead of last month and creates a supply of only 1.5 months of homes based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Cloverdale in the month of August was $346,000, the highest level since August of 2008 when it was $394,000. Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (58) at the end of August is 58% lower than it was a year ago. And, with a sales pace of 37 new sales for the month, the market is at a low of 1.6 months of inventory. The sales price to original listing price remains a healthy 99%. and prices have stabilized at slightly over $200 per square foot. It is interesting that there were new sales of 35 units, 33 units and 38 units in May, June and July of this year, but there were closings of only 29 units, 29 units and 16 units in June, July and August. So, we are either having delays in financing – which seems pretty prevalent at this time – or we are having a lot of cancellations in this market. Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Legal Update: Mark the dates: Tuesday, 10/20, 8:30 am in Rohnert Park or Tuesday, 11/3, 8:30 am in San Rafael. Risk management requires all of our attendance at one of these presentations.

Closings: First of all, congratulations to Jane Barker of our Napa office for closing her first ever escrow (only happens once!) on September 1. Wishing her many, many more. Other closings for the period 8/24 to 9/11 include: Erin George, Sonoma; Kent Mitchell, Healdsburg; Diane Krause, Sonoma; Dan Gallagher, Sonoma; Lark Raymond, Napa; Carol Lexa, Healdsburg; Joyce Davison, Sonoma; Diane Litchfield, Sonoma; Leo Merle, Sonoma; Herb Heil, Sonoma; Constance Sharpe, Glen Ellen; Robyn Makurak, Sonoma; Ann Amtower, Healdsburg; Cheri Stanley, Napa; Hank Lane, Healdsburg; Pam Giusto, Sonoma; Monica Hernandez, Healdsburg.

The following agents had two sales during this period: Faeli Vyn, Napa (and her son got married); Pat and Norm Brown, Sonoma; and Sally Kros of Kelseyville, Lake County.

Daniel Casabonne, Sonoma; David Barker, Napa and the Foss Creek team of Lisa Albertson, Susan Montgomery and Gina Clyde each had three closings during this period - and Lisa had one extra on her own!

Finally, Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker had four closings during this period.

Congratulations to all!

The Three R’s:  I was reminded of the “Three R’s” today:
    Respect for self
    Respect for others
    Responsibility for all of one’s actions

Training:   Next Legal Update Dates are: 
      Tuesday, Oct. 20 – Rohnert Park and
      Tuesday, November 3, San Rafael

CAR Red Alert:  I encourage you to respond to CAR’s call for action opposing AB 827 and 985 by calling 1-800-961-3302.  It’s easy and effective.  

Wine Country Group Summary for July, 2009:

We closed 70 transaction sides in July, more than in any July since 2005 when we closed 73.  This is 20% more than we closed in July, 2008 (59).  But, as has been the case all year, the dollar volume was only 10% ahead of the volume last year.  But it was ahead – and that is good!   Also on the positive side, the average asking price of our 236 listings at the end of July remained 33% higher than this time a year ago – so higher selling prices are on the horizon.  We continue to receive multiple offers on our REO listings as the demand is strong and the supply has weakened.  We currently have 18 offers on a bank owned property in a desirable part of Solano County.  Recent comps indicated a list price of $399,000.  The home sold in 2005 for $795,000, and we are receiving offers in excess of $500,000.   A bit of rebalancing.

We remain solidly number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets.  In the past twelve months, we closed two and times as many transactions as our nearest competitors in our Sonoma and Healdsburg offices.  Our Napa office has generated a 54% increase in transaction sides for the first seven months of 2009 compared to 2008.  The current market leaders only increased their business by 26% and 23% respectively, so we are continuing to grow our Napa Valley business at a healthy pace.  We are a solid number three firm in units sold in Napa County.  We respect the hard work that all of our agents are doing in these tough times to help us to remain market leaders.

August, 2009 - Market Analysis:

Napa County Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Napa County (634) was 28% below the inventory (880) at this time last year.  New sales (174) were a whopping 49%% ahead of the pace a year ago. As in most parts of wine country markets, the median price of homes closed in Napa County seems to have reached it’s low point ($310,000) in February of this year.  In July, the median price of the closed homes was $350,000.   The average price per square foot of the homes closed in July reached $261.00 a steady increase since February when the per square foot price was $201.00.  The county in general is down to 3.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  American Canyon has just one months supply of inventory and the town of Napa has 3.3 months – so it is mostly Up Valley Napa County that has an overhang of inventory.  Unusually, over a third of the available inventory in the county is located “Up Valley”.    

The sale of distressed properties (bank owned sales and short sales) represented 57% of the closed escrows for the month of July, 2009.  75% of the 317 contingent or pending homes waiting to close are distressed properties, but only 18% of the active listings are distressed sales.  So, pending the release of additional foreclosed properties by banks (something we have been anticipating for several months), the market is fairly stabilized with conventional listings.  We might expect to see a slow down in the sales pace month over month as the distressed sales are making up such a smaller part of the market over the next several months. Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends:  The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) continues to be the slowest market in the region.  There are 204 properties available and there were only 12 new sales in the month of July.  That represents a 17 month supply of inventory.  Unlike our other Wine Country markets, inventory is up 15 % from a year ago.  Up Valley available listings represent 33% percent of the overall Napa County inventory – a very unusual occurrence.   Homes take over one and a half times as long to sell in the Up Valley (146 average days on market) compared to entire County (95 days).  The spring market never gained traction in Up Valley this year – it will be interesting to see when this market will kick into gear.  Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGrahix reports.

Sonoma County Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,485) in Sonoma County at the end of July was 42% lower than a year ago, but slightly higher than the 1,432 available last month.  New sales (640) in July were 41% ahead of the pace in July, 2008 and 11% ahead of last month.  The median price of homes closed in July in Sonoma  County was $340,000 an increase from the low median price point of $285,000 that was reached in February.  If prices continue to bump forward at the current pace, the median price at the end of next month might be equal to that of August, 2008 ($355,000) meaning the market would have been stable in price on a year over year basis.  We’ll see.   Based on the current sales pace, there is only a 2.3 month supply of inventory, either an indication of a pending sellers market, or, more likely, a slowing of the sales pace.  Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Sonoma Valley Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (213) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of July was 12% below that  for July, 2008 and slightly ahead of the inventory of last month.  There were 41 new sales for the month (compared to 35 a month ago and 33 in July, ‘08).  The median sales price in Sonoma Valley in July ($504,000) was just slightly below the median sales price ($518,000) in July, 2008.  Overall, the Sonoma Valley market seems to be reaching a stage of “good health”.  Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Healdsburg Trends:  New sales (23) in July remained at a relatively high level.  They were 156% ahead of the new sales pace a year ago.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (104) in Healdsburg at the end of July was slightly higher than that of last month (96) but was 10% below the available inventory (116) in July, ‘08.  This market is certainly showing signs of rebounding. The average days on market for the 15 closed sales in Healdsburg last month was 134 days – so things are taking a while!  Selling price to original list price was 86% for last month’s sales, still a soft figure for our Wine Country markets.  The sales activity in Healdsburg clearly is in the below $1,000,000 price range.  Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (31) at the end of July, 2009 is the lowest that it has been in the past fifteen months.  It is 67% lower than this time a year ago.  Sales remain strong at 23 for the month, so there is only 1.3 months of inventory available at the current sales pace.  The median price per square foot ($203.00) is 30% ahead of the low median price per square foot ($156.00) in March of this year.  The Cloverdale market may have trouble sustaining the current sales pace due to the lack of inventory and the absence of distressed sale properties – but, perhaps, reluctant sellers may see that the market has turned their way and consider going on the market.  Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Windsor Trends:  The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (54) at the end of July is 63% lower than it was a year ago.  And, with a sales pace of 44 new sales for the month, the market is at an astounding low of 1.2 months of inventory.  The sales price to original listing price is a healthy 99%. and prices have stabilized at about $200 per square foot.  The median price ($360,000) of the homes closed in July is 11% ahead of the median price ($325,000) level in April of this year – the seemingly low point in the market.  Clearly, this market needs inventory and sellers who have been on the sidelines should be encouraged to get into the game while the market is in their favor.  It will be interesting to see how this market goes through the balance of the summer.  Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Closings:  Congratulations to Carol Figone who closed her very first real estate transaction as a new licensee on 8/11 after being with the company just a few months.  Wishing Carol many, many more in her career.

Others who enjoyed closings in the past month include:  Randy Haak, Glen Ellen;  Barbara Greenhill, Sonoma;  Art Bowen, Napa;  Ann Amtower, Healdsburg;  Hank Lane, Healdsburg;  Bill Streett, Sonoma;  Aimee Greco, Napa;  Barbara Sommerville, Sonoma;  Beth Bruno, Healdsburg;  Mara Kahn, Sonoma;  Carol Lexa, Healdsburg;  Lark Raymond, Napa;  Diane Krause, Sonoma;  Penelope La Montagne, Healdsburg;  and Diane Litchfield, Sonoma.  

The following agents had two closings over the past month:  Sheila Deignan, Sonoma;  Mari Johnson, Sonoma;  and Svetlana Ternovskaya.

The following agents had three closings in the past thirty days:  Felice Torri, Sonoma;  Linda Alioto, St. Helena;  Herb Heil, Sonoma;  Frank Trozzo, Napa;  and Deke Dekay and Diane Harris, Healdsburg.

Lisa Albertson, Gina Clyde and Susan White enjoyed four closings in the Foss Creek Subdivision in Healdsburg in the past month.  

Cheri Stanley of our Napa Office had six closings and David Barker of our Napa office and Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker of our Kenwood office had seven closings each in the past month.

To cap it off, Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma office had a whopping twelve closings in the past month – three a week – something to strive for!

Well done by all and congratulations!

Moving On:  Many of you know that Earl and I have acquired the Mayo family's interest in Frank Howard Allen Realtors, The Wine Country Group, effective this week.  Over the past thirteen years of our partnership, Henry has been an instrumental part of the growth of our firm and he has always been fully supportive of the agents, staff and his partners.  I've learned a lot from Henry over the years and I appreciate the experience that he has always been willing to share.  We will miss Henry as a partner, but we know he will remain active around the valley and that our paths will cross many times in the community.  I believe that I can say from all of us involved with the firm over the years:  Thanks Henry, and Well Done!

Best Real Estate Company:   For the eight consecutive year, Frank Howard Allen Realtors is named as the “Best Real Estate Company” in the 20th annual readers poll in the North Bay Biz magazine.  Congratulations to all of our agents and staff, and to all of the agents and staff of all of the Frank Howard Allen Realtor family offices.  I believe that it is worth mentioning here that Frank Howard Allen Realtors will be celebrating its 100th anniversary in 2010.  A milestone with which we are proud to be associated.

Wine Country Group Summary for 1st Half of 2009

We closed 351 transaction sides in the first half of 2009.  This is more than in any similar six month period since the first six months of 2005 and is 25% more transaction sides than in the first six months of 2008.  However, while the transaction activity is up, the total dollar sales volume is down by 25% to $139.6 million this year compared to $183.3 million last year.  Our average sales price for 2009 has been slightly under $400,000 compared to $650,000 a year ago.  On the positive side, the average asking price of our 236 listings at the end of June has climbed to $1,000,000 – the highest level in three years.  We also closed multiple million dollar sales in June of this year including a $6.5 million dollar sale.  In our various wine country markets, prices seemed to have bottomed as of February of this year, so things look to be improving.

We remain solidly number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets.  For the first six months of 2009, we closed two and one half times as many transactions as our nearest competitors in our Sonoma and Healdsburg offices.  Our Napa office has generated a 56% increase in transaction sides for the first half of 2009 compared to 2008.  The current market leaders only increased their business by 29% and 26% respectively, so we are continuing to grow our Napa Valley business at a healthy pace.  We respect the hard work that all of our agents are doing in these tough times to help us to remain market leaders.

June, 2009 TrendGraphix Analysis

Napa County Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June in Napa County (663) was 25% below the inventory (884) at this time last year.  New sales (107) were 13% ahead of the pace a year ago while closed escrows (103) were flat year over year.  The sale of distressed properties (bank owned sales and short sales) represented 51% of the closed escrows for the month of June, 2009, but only 18% of the active listings are distressed sales.  So, pending the release of additional foreclosed properties by banks (something we have been anticipating for several months), the market is fairly stabilized with conventional listings.  We might expect to see a slow down in the sales pace month over month as the distressed sales are making up such a smaller part of the market over the next several months.  As in most parts of wine country markets, prices seem to have reached their low point in February of this year and have been increasing steadily since then.  Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends:  The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) continues to be the slowest market in the region.  There are 210 properties available and only 7 sold in the month of June.  That represents a 30 month supply of inventory and, unlike our other Wine Country markets, inventory is up 23% from a year ago.  Up Valley available listings represent 33% percent of the overall Napa County inventory – a very unusual occurrence.  Homes take over one and a half times as long to sell Up Valley (169 average days on market) compared to entire County (99 days).  The Spring market never gained traction in Up Valley this year – it will be interesting to see when this market will kick into gear.  

Sonoma County Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,432) in Sonoma County at the end of June was 45% lower than a year ago.  New sales (466) in June were consistent with the pace in June 2008.  Distressed sales, either bank owned, in foreclosure, or “short sales” (where the lender accepts less than the full payoff of their loan) represented 57% of all closings in June, 2009 compared to 73% in the early part of this year.  Distressed listings represent only 21% of the current inventory compared to 55% in February.  So, pending the release of additional foreclosed properties by banks (something we have been anticipating for several months), the market is fairly stabilized with conventional listings.  We might expect to see a slow down in the sales pace month over month as the distressed sales are making up such a smaller part of the market over the next several months.  The median price of homes closed in June in Sonoma  County was $300,000, an increase from the low median price point of $285,000 that was reached in February.  Based on the current sales pace, there is only a 3.1 month supply of inventory, either an indication of a pending seller’s market, or, more likely, a slowing of the sales pace.  

Sonoma Valley Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (194) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of June was 20% below that of June 2008, and slightly ahead of the inventory of last month.  There were 32 new sales for the month (compared to 39 a month ago and 30 in June ‘08).   Distressed sales (bank owned properties and short sales) represented 46% of closed sales in June, 2009 and currently represent 13% of the available inventory.  This compares to distressed sales representing 33% of the inventory in February.  So, like elsewhere, the distressed properties are being absorbed.  We can expect two trends:  Sales pace will slow as these properties disappear and prices should climb as they have done in the past several months.  The average sales price in Sonoma Valley in June ($700,000) was significantly higher than the median sales price ($412,000) so there are some sales occurring in the higher price brackets including a $6.5 million dollar sale that was listed by our office.  This compares to sales in Napa County where the average price was $479,000 and the median price was $380,000 – much closer.  

Healdsburg Trends:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (96) in Healdsburg at the end of June was slightly higher than that of last month (88) but was 24% below the available inventory (127) in June 2008.  This market is certainly showing signs of rebounding.  New sales (20) in June were the highest in the past 15 months continuing an increasing trend that began in March of this year.  Sales have taken a while to happen.  The average days on market for the 15 closed sales in Healdsburg last month was 221 days – but they closed!  Selling price to original list price has also taken a bit of a beating – it has been between 75% and 85% for the past several months – a low figure for our Wine Country markets.  Most of the activity seems to be in the below $1,000,000 price range.  

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (35) at the end of June 2009 is the lowest that it has been in the past fifteen months.  It is 61% lower than this time a year ago.  Sales remain strong at 15 for the month, so there is only 2.3 months of inventory available at the current sales pace.  The median price ($302,000) for the month of June has rebounded from the low in March of this year which was $210,000.  The Cloverdale market may have trouble sustaining the current sales pace due to the lack of inventory and the absence of distressed sale properties – but, perhaps, reluctant sellers may see that the market has turned their way and consider going on the market.  

Windsor Trends:  The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (47) at the end of June is the lowest that it has been in recent history.  It is a full 66% lower than it was a year ago.  And, with a sales pace of 31 new sales for the month, the market is at an astounding low of 1.8 months of inventory.  The sales price to original listing price is a healthy 95% and prices have stabilized at about $200 per square foot.  Clearly, this market needs inventory and sellers who have been on the sidelines should be encouraged to get into the game while the market is in their favor.  It will be interesting to see how this market goes through the balance of the summer.  

Closings:  Since it has been several months since my last message, there are far too many closings than I can reasonably recap here.  Let me just congrat all of you who have worked so hard to succeed in these difficult market conditions.  I would like to recognize the following agents who have been the most productive in company dollar contribution during the first six months of this year:
    Diane Krause, Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker, Sheila Deignan, Daniel Casabonne, Cheri Stanley, Deke Dekay and Diane Harris, Ann Amtower, Linda Alioto, David Barker, Faeli Vyn, Mike Caselli, Jane and Ron Pavelka, Robyn Makaruk and Lisa Albertson.

Leading Through Turbulent Times – As part of the Leadership Council Meetings in Atlanta last month, we spent a few hours with Michael Staver in a program entitled “Leading Through Turbulent Times”. As each agent is CEO of their own business – each of us need to display these leadership traits:
Mindsets over Skillsets – here are the Mindsets We Need:
• Open – to looking at EVERY area of our businesses with FRESH EYES (yours and others)
• Creative – doing different things – not doing things differently
• Determination – relentlessly driving your business by:
    - Living and demanding consistent execution of your         core values
    - Enhancing the experience
    - Not listening to or accepting old answers to new             questions
• Focus – consistently dealing with what’s important as opposed to what gets our attention

Many of you know of my involvement with the Hyde Schools based in Bath, ME. I recently received a letter from the school indicating they are joining the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard as the only educational institutions to annually offer the “Hoffman Quadrinity Process”. Visit www.hoffmaninstitute.org for more info. The part that applies to this paragraph on leadership comes from another Hyde alumni parent Warrne Bennis, Chairman of the Kennedy School of Government Board of Advisors who says: “Here is the deal: learning to be a leader is virtually the same process as becoming an integrated and healthy person…What that means is that when we talk about ‘growing leaders’ we’re inevitably involved in personal stuff, personal transformation.”

Again from Mike Staver (www.thestavergroup.com):
• Values=Attitude. Attitude=Behavior
• Dumb is your friend – Ask questions
• It’s all about results
• Don’t panic – Do the work
• Commit to Lifelong Learning
• Live with Energy and Intensity


Top Ranking Businesses in the North Bay: Frank Howard Allen Realtors is listed as the largest Real Estate company in the recent edition of Top 500 Ranking Businesses published by the Northbay BIZ last month. The firm is identified with 637 agents and $48,000,000 in revenues for 2007. We are proud to be a part of the Frank Howard Allen family and celebrating 100 years in business next year.

Current Activity: Some interesting conclusions can be drawn from our business for the first quarter of this year. As of 3/30, we have 110 units in escrow compared to 65 on 3/30/08. Those 110 units represent $54,000,000 in sales volume compared to $52,000,000 for the 65 units last year. So, we are working nearly twice as hard for the same revenue. At the end of March, we have 228 units in available inventory compared to 220 a year ago. The average listing price at the end of March last year was $800,000 and is $759,000 this year.

In the first quarter of 2008, we closed several transactions in excess of $4,000,000 which we did not do this year. The reduced prices of the market place are clearly reflected in our dollar volume for the first quarter of 2009 being $50 million compared to $87 million in the first quarter of 2008 despite closing 141 units this year compared to 126 in the first quarter a year ago. We have not seen this level of activity since the first quarter of 2001 it is highly likely that we will be going through another series of cost reductions as we move through the balance of this year.

We are proud of the hard work that our agents are putting in to helping us to remain leaders in our industry.

Training: We are working on a follow-up training to Joyce Davison’s great presentation last month. It will involve direct mail and SOI marketing. In the meantime:
CAR Contract Training on 4/10 in Santa Rosa, 9:00 am to Noon. Check on the NorBAR website – www.norbarrealtor.com - to sign-up by 4/3.

Also, don’t forget the Spring Legal Update in Rohnert Park on Tuesday, May 5. Attendance is mandatory as part of our Risk Management program.

Sonoma Valley International Film Festival - The Sonoma Valley International Film Festival runs through the balance of this week. We are proud to be sponsors as we have been over the years and to have all the activity next to our office in the Sebastiani Theratre building. For several years we sponsored the documentary films in the festival better known as the "House of Docs". We did a little film trailer during that time and you might enjoy viewing it - it's a couple of minutes long. Just click on "House of Docs Video".

Welcome to our new sales agents: Welcome to Ellen Politz who has joined our Napa office. Ellen has over fifteen years of experience in the banking industry and is an excellent short sale consultant. Call her at 265-1605 if you need assistance with a short sale. We’re also happy to welcome Helaine Forte back to our Napa office. She will be handling properties in both Napa and Sonoma. Her number in Napa is 337-3415

Closings: Congratulations to Vinni Bubak, Jannette Hall and Sally Kalaveras, all in our Napa office, and Julie King of our St. Helena office for their first closings with Frank Howard Allen Realtors, the Wine Country Group. Wishing them many more. Other closings for the period from 2/23 thru 3/27 include: Sheila Deignan (Sonoma); Diane Krause (Sonoma); Susan Irvine (Sonoma); Faeli Vyn (Napa); Mara Kahn (Sonoma); Carol Lexa (Healdsburg); Aimee Greco (Napa); Lark Raymond (Napa); Deke Dekay and Diane Harris (Healdsburg); Robyn Makaruk (Sonoma); Svetlana Ternovskaya (Napa); William Streett (Sonoma); Alicia Robledo (Sonoma); Dee Grohmann (Healdsburg); Jana Jones (Healdsburg); Erick Rothfeld (Sonoma); Mike Caselli (Sonoma); and Pat Brown (Sonoma); The following agents had two closings over this period: Ida Clark (Napa); Linda Alioto (St. Helena); and Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker (Kenwood). Ann Amtower of our Healdsburg office and Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma Office both had three closings during this period. David Barker of our Napa Office had four closings. And Cheri Stanley of our Napa office and Ron and Jane Pavelka of our Cloverdale office each had five closings during this period. Congratulations to all!

Birthdays: Birthdays in the last month include: John Scott, Marianne Young, Diane Krause, Joan Harrington and Alicia Robledo – Best wishes to all!

The Hokey Pokey – Daniel Casabonne, our top producing agent in Dollar Volume for in 2008, was sharing his experience and expertise with our Healdsburg and Cloverdale agents this week when he reminded me of the Hokey Pokey. Several years ago, Lori Bremner, our consummate commercial property manager, gave me a t-shirt that said: “What if the Hokey Pokey is what it is really all about”. I adopted this for the year in the sense that you “put your whole self in, and you take your whole self out.” Dan remembered this little mantra and shared it with the other agents. When he is “at work”, he is all the way in – fully committed. When he takes time for himself, he is all the way out – committed to his own well being and peace of mind. He doesn’t abandon his work – but he puts it in the proper perspective. This way he keeps a healthy balance and maintains his enthusiasm. Thanks, Dan, for reminding me of that important lesson in the Hokey Pokey.

Wine Country Group Update for February, 2009: Our business remains stable in light of all that is going on around us. In January, we closed 55 sides vs. 48 sides a year ago and 39 in 1/2007 and 38 in 1/2006. As busy as we were, our dollar volume in 1/2009 was $20,000,000 compared to $46,000,000 in 2008. So the median price of our transactions was down for that month. The same fact is reflected in our backlog of pending transactions which (as of 2/23) stands at 93 sales compared to 64 a year ago and reflects $42,000,000 in volume compared to $50,000,000 a year ago. Same with listing inventory which is down to 174 units compared to 187 a year ago and reflects a median price of $758,000 compared to $834,000 a year ago. Certainly, our activity in the REO market is largely responsible for this trend, not only in our firm, but industry wide. We do see market rate and high end listings and sales coming on line as the spring market unfolds.

We remain number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets. In the Sonoma Valley, we are selling twice as many units as our nearest competitor and we expect to continue that trend. Our Napa, Kenwood and Sonoma offices all had year over year gains in units closed for the month of January, 2009.

Best Real Estate Company: We are proud to be named the “Best Real Estate Company” in Sonoma in KVON’s 17th annual “Best of…” awards. Congratulations to all of our agents and staff for this recognition. Visit http://www.kvon.com/ to see the results of the survey.

Training: Congratulations to Joyce Davidson of our Sonoma office for planning and implementing two two hour training sessions in the past two weeks. The response to Joyce’s trainings has been very positive and we look forward to sponsoring Joyce in doing more training sessions throughout the year. This is consistent with our goal of generating more internal training opportunities for our Wine Country Group agents this year. Thanks, also, to Cheri Stanley and Daniel Casaboone who contributed their knowledge and skills to the training.

**Property Websites – Important Policy Change**: To my knowledge, we are the only real estate firm in Northern California offering free property websites to our agents for all of our listings. We appreciate that our agents have wholly adopted this marketing approach and to date we have developed over 717 of these interactive websites. Many thanks to Ally, Lourdes and Susie. Because of the cost to us to reserve websites we are implementing the following

POLICY CHANGE:
Effective 3/1/09, if:
1. A property website address is reserved, but unused for over thirty (30) days; or
2. More than one property website address is reserved for one property; or
3. A property website is reserved and it is a mistake; or
4. A property website is extended for over one year;
Then, the agent will be charged $25.00 for each occurrence.

Please note, for all other uses of the property website program, there will be no charge to our agents and it will remain a unique marketing tool that the company provides for each of our listings.

Welcome to our new sales agents: Susan Montgomery joins our Healdsburg office as part of the team handling the 40 unit Foss Creek Condominium project. David Katz, former Executive Director of California Trouts Unlimited and former ED of the Sonoma Land Trust joins our Sonoma office. David has a wealth of experience in land conservation, conservation easements, agricultural development and ag preserves, etc. If you have any sensitive properties that have these “issues”, David is a great resource for us. Also welcome to Zoe Stanowski in our Sonoma office.

Frame of Mind Coaching: I enjoy reading articles by Kim Ades who has a business called Frame of Mind Coaching. As you can guess from the title, she emphasizes the importance of “attitude” in all that we do – particularly in sales. Much of her training is done through Webinars and she has an interesting one coming up this Thursday, 2/26. It’s called “Let’s Get Thin”, and the speaker, Rob Sugar (ironically) is an “Emotional Eating” coach. His premise is that diets do not work, overeating is an emotional response to other stresses. Sounds interesting, at least thought provoking. For more, visit: this LINK.

Green Designation: If you are interested in receiving your “Green Designation” as a Realtor, several local classes are being offered. Visit http://www.car.org/education/designations/greendesignation/ for more information.

Closings: Closings for the period from 1/26 thru 2/20 include: Isaac Raboy (Sonoma); Ann Foley (Sonoma); Constance Sharpe (Glen Ellen); Tish Thames (Sonoma); Aimee Greco (Napa); Art Bowen (Napa); Penelope La Montagne (Healdsburg); Susan Irvine (Sonoma); Frank Trozzo (Napa); Patty Keiser (Glen Ellen); Christina Bourassa (Sonoma); Faeli Vyn (Napa); Curtis Kind (Cloverdale); Richard Hurst (Cloverdale); Monica Hernandez (Healdsburg); Jana Jones (Healdsburg); Barbara Sommerville (Sonoma); Corrie Sterbentz (Sonoma); Pat Brown (Sonoma); The following agents had two closings over this period: Jessica Detwiller (Napa); Herb Heil (Sonoma); Sheila Deignan (Sonoma); Diane Litchfield (Sonoma); and Jane and Ron Pavelka (Cloverdale). Cheri Stanley of our Napa office and Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma Office had four closings each during this period. Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker of our Kenwood office closed five transactions during this time, and David Barker of our Napa Office topped the bunch by having seven closings during this period. Congratulations to all!

Congratulations to Roger Olson of our Healdsburg office for being awarded the 2008 Sonoma County Spirit Award by the Windsor Chamber of Commerce.

Birthdays: Birthdays for the month of January include: Robyn Makurak, Sharon Semenero, Linda Alioto, Danuta Mykytiuk, Mari Johnson, Diane Harris, Barbara Sommerville, Isaac Raboy, Katie Bailie and Kendra Martin. For February, birthdays include Randy Haak, Charlotte Schanzer, Scott Inglis, and Patti Keiser. Special wishes to Earl Shuttleworth who celebrates one of those “BIG” birthdays this week – and best wishes to all!

A whole bunch has been happening leading up to and following our new President's inauguration on January 20. I have some thoughts in my "welcoming address" to our Wine Country Group Kick-off which we held on Friday, January 23, but first, here is a copy of some of the highlights of the Kick-off:

Sonoma, California (January 26, 2008)—Frank Howard Allen Realtors, The Wine Country Group™, had their companywide kick-off on Friday, January 23rd, with over one hundred agents and staff in attendance at the Quail Lodge at the Oakmont Country Club. Top producers for the seven office firm were announced and recognized.

Gerrett Snedaker, CEO/Broker of Frank Howard Allen Realtors, The Wine Country Group™, made the announcement of the firm’s overall top agents with the following comments: “For our entire company there are three stellar performances that we want to recognize today. One of our agents produced more than $39,000,000 in Dollar Volume. He doubled the dollar volume and unit count of his nearest competitor in his market. Congratulations to Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma Office for being Top Producer in Dollar Volume. Another agent closed 76 and one half units in 2008. That’s almost one and one half closings per week. This agent became the highest producing agent in both units and dollar volume for all agents based in Napa County. Congratulations to Cheri Stanley of our Napa Office for being our Top Producer in Units Sold. Finally, one agent produced 72 listings for the year. More remarkably, he did this in only eight months as he joined the Wine Country Group in April of 2008. Congratulations to David Barker of our Napa Office for being Top Producer in Listings”.

Earl Shuttleworth, Partner in the Wine Country Group, and Lori Sargiotto, Chief Financial Officer, alternately introduced Top Producers in each of the firm’s offices including Casabonne in the Sonoma Valley and Stanley and Barker in Napa. Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker were also acknowledged as Top Listing Agents for the Sonoma Valley. Dee Grohmann (Top Dollar Volume) and Penelope La Montagne (Top Unit Sales and Listings) were recognized for the Healdsburg office; Ron and Jane Pavelka were recognized as Top Producers in the Cloverdale Office; and, Steve and Marla Ericson (Top Dollar Volume) and Linda Alioto (Top Unit Sales and Listings) were recognized for the St. Helena office.

Shuttleworh also announced the company’s Top Performers. These agents, though not always the Top Producers in their respective offices, made significant advances in their personal production on a year over year basis. They reached difficult standards set by the company at the beginning of 2008. Included in this "Top Performers" group were Lisa Albertson (Sonoma and Healdsburg), Ann Amtower (Healdsburg), David Barker, Daniel Casabonne, Sheila Deignan (Sonoma), Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker, Dee Grohmann, Patty Keiser (Glen Ellen), Diane Krause (Sonoma), Jane and Ron Pavelka, Isaac Raboy (Sonoma), Nicki Rector (Healdsburg), Charlee Schanzer (Healdsburg), Cheri Stanley, Bill Streett (Sonoma) and Frank Trozzo (Napa).
Gina Clyde of the Sonoma office was recognized as the company’s “Rookie of the Year”, Danuta Mykyliuk, the Office Administrator for the Healdsburg Office, was named “Support Staff Employee of the Year”, and the Napa Office was named “Office of the Year”. The Napa Office increased its production 5 fold in 2008, going from 34 closings to 166 and adding ten new agents over the course of the year.

Other events at the Wine Country Group’s Kick-off included the introduction of new on-line marketing materials by the company’s Marketing Director, Susie Savino, and a Keynote Address by Keith Woods, Chief Executive Officer of the North Coast Builders Exchange.

My welcoming remarks were as follows:

What an exciting week. The energy surrounding our new President’s inauguration was palpable even three thousand miles away. Listening to radio reports of those who were there confirm that it was a once in a lifetime moment. Of course, this larger scale excitement has made it difficult for me to come up with something meaningful to say this morning, but I will do my best.

On Tuesday, President Obama said the following: “Our challenges may be new. The instruments with which we meet them may be new. But those values upon which our success depends — hard work and honesty, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism — these things are old. These things are true. They have been the quiet force of progress throughout our history”. I am proud that many of these values are also in our company statement of “Who We Are”: Courage, Curiosity, Honesty, Trust, Integrity, High Expecations and Respect. I agree that these principles are the values upon which our success depends.

On your program and around the room are posters of a Rocky Mountain Goat in mid-air, leaping across a mountain ravine. Looking at these photos, the value of courage comes to mind. I respect the courage that each of you exhibit in taking on new clients, on counseling them through difficult situations fraught with strong emotions. As I said in my printed remarks, I observe you “leaping empty chasms all the time…” – moving forward.

In Elizabeth Alexander’s Inaugural Poem, “Praise Song for the Day”, she repeats this notion of “leaping forward” – a combination of courage and curiosity:
“We cross dirt roads and highways that mark the will of someone and then others who said, ‘I need to see what’s on the other side; I know that there’s something better down the road’”.
I see that you, in your professional sales careers, look to the next opportunity, the new client relationship, the something better on the other side of your difficult efforts. I admire this in you.

Music is always inspiring to me. In putting together the group of songs that have been playing while we gathered this morning – many thoughts and emotions come to me, and I relate many of the songs to the values with which we work and the today’s kick-off theme. I will weave some of these songs and lyrics into my coming remarks:
Many of you will receive well deserved awards and recognition for your hard work and your business success in 2008. Some of you will receive multiple awards because you have placed yourself as leaders among your peers. For those who receive awards today and those who set the goal of receiving an award at our kick-off next year – here are some song’s to keep in mind:
“Keep On Pushin’” – you can’t stop now
Similar to Earl’s favorite theme from “Chariots of Fire” – race farther, harder and faster than the rest
“It’s a Brand New Day” – thinking in a brand new way. Paraphrasing a famous saying, if we continue to do the same thing over and over again, we can expect the same results. To those of you who are recognized today – keep doing what you are doing. For those desiring to get there – it’s a brand new day and time to think in new ways.
“Accentuate the Positive” – Dr. John’s prescription for the “attitude for doing right”.
There are songs of dreamers and travelers, persistence and joy, and a couple of Yes We Can songs – One is the “Obama Anthem” by Talat; “You Can Get it if You Really Want” by Jimmy Cliff, and the original: “Yes We Can Can” by the Pointer Sisters. Did some of you see the movie “Young At Heart”? It’s a great film about a man who forms a touring singing group called “Young at Heart”. The great and challenging part is that all of the singers are 70 year’s old or older – some are into their 90’s. In one part of the film he is teaching them new songs including “Yes We Can Can” and they get all tongue tied over the repeated Yes We Can’s – 59 of them in the song. In any case, they finally make it through and perform the song on their tour to great ovations. They take that leap over the empty chasm into the unknown, and they are rewarded.

If you’d like a CD of these songs to listen to while driving from here to there, or at home, let me know, I’ll be happy to burn you one.

I believe that you all know that 2008 has been full of some extraordinary events in our real estate brokerage. In my forty plus years in the business, I heard new and startling stories about your transactions, and non-transactions this year. The fact that new things are always happening in our business is one of the most enjoyable parts of it for me. With all the interesting stories, my favorite is this: Jane and Ron Pavelka were representing a first time home buyer, buying a REO property at the end of the year. As with all REO transactions, the timing of the timelines and closings were uncertain. They actually closed on December 24th. When Jane met them at the home that evening, Christmas Eve, to turn over the keys, they gave her a small envelope. In it was their Christmas card. It was a picture of them in front of the house – taken some time before - but they had not wanted to share it with anyone until the home was actually theirs and their dream of owning a home came true. With tears and hugs, Jane accepted their holiday offering and ushered them into their new home and their new life.

We are confident that 2009 holds great opportunities for all of us and, with you, we will keep “Leaping Towards Success”.

Here is the info on our company production and our market conditions as of 12/31/08:

For the year ending December, 2008, The Wine Country Groups closings were ahead of the rate for 2007 and 2006. We closed 628 units compared to 534 a year ago. Because of falling sales prices across all of our markets, our median price for closings for the year dropped to $568,000 compared to 740,000 in 2007. Thus, our gross sales volume was $355 million compared to $386 million last year. Our commission rate increased over the year and our commission split as a company improved a bit, so things balanced out and we were able to achieve a modest profit for the year – our first in three years.

We had a record year in listings with 677 compared to 594 a year ago. Our available inventory at year end numbers 200 listings, exactly the same as at this time a year ago. Our average listing value is $705,000 which is down from $880,000 a year ago, but higher than the $648,000 that we had at the end of November, 2008. As we begin 2009, we have 77 open escrows vs. 74 a year ago. Predictably, the outstanding dollar volume is less than a year ago, $45,000,000 compared to $62,000,000. I know that we have at least $30,000,000 in high end listings that will be coming on the market in the weeks following the Super Bowl – the traditional end of the holiday season.

We remain solidly number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets. Our Napa office finished the year 388% ahead of 2007. For firms based in Napa County, we are now the third largest in unit production over the past twelve months. Interestingly, one competitor in the Sonoma Valley is claiming #1 market share. The fine print in their graphic specifies that the data is “for sales in excess of $1,000,000 in value”. In reality, we sold nearly twice as many homes as they did in 2008 (193 to 100) and we exceeded their overall dollar volume as well – so be careful with those statistics!

December, 2008 TrendGraphix Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Napa County (727) was 11% lower than a month ago and it was also 11% below the inventory (818) at this time last year. New sales (101) and closed escrows (103) were well ahead of the pace of a year ago (42 and 42 respectively). That’s an increase of 140% in units sold for the month. The sale of bank owned properties (REOs) continues to strongly influence the current market. The median price of homes closed in December, 2008 was $392,000 compared to $377,000 last month and $567,000 in December of 2007. A 45% decline in median price over the last year. The average price per square foot of homes sold, however, seems pretty stabilized in the low $300s per square foot.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: New sales (13) in the St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) were up from a month ago when there were 6 new sales. In December, 2008, there were 16 closings compared with 4 both a month ago and in December, 2007. This is a welcome change as the Up Valley market has been really slow over most of the year. Inventory remains relatively high at 158 units compared to 139 a year ago.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,834) in Sonoma County at the end of December was 24% lower than a year ago. New sales (404) in December, ‘08 were consistent with last month and were 92% ahead of the pace in December, ‘07 (210). Distressed sales, either bank owned, in foreclosure, or “short sales” (where the lender accepts less than the full payoff of their loan) remain a major component of the market. The median price of homes closed in December in Sonoma County was $310,000 which was ahead of last month’s median ($306,000) but was 39% lower than the median price ($432,000) of closed sales in December, 2007. The average price per square foot of homes sold, however, seems pretty stabilized in the $230 to $240 per square foot range.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (169) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of December, ’08 was 24% below that for the period of December, 2007 (223). There were 25 new sales for the month (compared to 21 a month ago and 16 in December, ‘07). The median price of homes closed in December in the Sonoma Valley was $435,000 which was ahead of last month’s median ($340,000) but was 56% lower than the median price ($678,000) of closed sales in December, 2007. The average price per square foot of homes sold, however, seems pretty stabilized in the $305 to $320 per square foot range.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (85) in Healdsburg at the end of December was slightly less than that of November (92) and was 13% below the 98 homes available in December, ‘07. New sales (11) and closed escrows (13) compared to 6 and 8, respectively, in December, 2007, so the market is picking up in Healdsburg. The available inventory compared to closed homes in the month dropped to a 6.5 month supply, down from a 16.3 month supply a year ago and the lowest in the last fifteen months.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (75) in December, 2008 dropped from 81 units a month ago, and is slightly below the 82 units available at this time in December, 2007. New sales and closings have dropped off from the pace of the early fall at 9 to 8 respectively, but this is still an improvement from the 8 closings and 3 sales that occurred in December, 2007. The median price of homes closed in December in Cloverdale was $295,000 which was ahead of last month’s median ($290,000) but was 29% lower than the median price ($382,000) of closed sales in December, 2007. The average price per square foot of homes sold, however, seems pretty stabilized in the $175 to $200 per square foot range.

Please contact me, or any of our agents, for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports – a Frank Howard Allen Realtors exclusive.

Branding with Trulia.com: If you look go to Trulia.com, you will see that we have now branded our listings and have "featured listings" that rise above the other listings on Trulia's page. From Trulia's home page enter a town/city in which we have an office (i.e. Sonoma, Healdsburg...) and you will see that some of our listings show up as "featured properties" and all of our listings are branded with our logo. We have seen a real jump in our website traffic since entering a marketing agreement with Trulia and we will monitor it over the next six months to see if it is worth our investment.

"They Walk Among Us":  A friend sent along a list of funny bits on the theme that there are actually people out there like this!  One related to a real estate agent and went like this: 

While looking at a house, my brother asked the estate agent which direction was north because, he explained, he didn't want the sun waking him up every morning. She asked, 'Does the sun rise in the north?' When my brother explained that the sun rises in the east, and has for sometime, she shook her head and said, 'Oh, I don't keep up with that  stuff'

Well, I can hope that this particular agent does "not walk among us" in the Wine Country Group.

Closings and Birthdays:  I am so far behind on this that I am going to start fresh in the next update to the blog.  I do want to point out a few agents who had their first closings with Frank Howard Allen Realtors, the Wine Country Group over the past six weeks, or so.  They include:  Lark Raymond, Ida Clark, Art Bowen and Jannette Hall, all in our Napa office, and Curtis Kind in our Cloverdale office.  Congratulations to all who had closings and/or birthdays over the past weeks since my last blog entry.

Ac-cent-tchu-ate the Positive – As many of our agents found out in the past few days, I woke up on Monday morning wondering how to look at our business and market moving into the last quarter of the year. Suddenly, the song “Ac-cent-tchu-ate the Positive” came to mind. When I found the lyrics on line – it was just what I was feeling like:
“You’ve got to accentuate the positive
Eliminate the negative
Latch on to the affirmative
Don’t mess with Mister In-Between”

It’s that Mister In-Between that is the biggest nemesis. Sitting on the fence will get you no where.

Johnny Mercer wrote this song in 1944. We had been at war for three years. It was the year of D-Day and there was much uncertainty, but also, much solidarity. Sounds familiar. In any case, I like Doctor John’s version of the song and will be playing it over and over in my mind, if not on my iPod.

Wine Country Group Update for October, 2008: For October, 2008, The Wine Country Groups closings were ahead of the rate for 2007, 60 closings vs. 46 a year ago. New sales for the month (46) were 18% ahead of October, 2007, and new listings (44) were 46% ahead of October, ’07. A rather startling figure in October was 30 canceled sales. We basically had to sell two for everyone that succeeded. Our available inventory numbers 212 listings vs. 235 at this time a year ago. Our average listing value is down from $885,400 in November, 2007 to $689,000 this year. We have 82 open escrows going into November vs. 62 a year ago, but the dollar volume is less than a year ago, $52,000,000 compared to $69,000,000. In a positive vein, we have reduced our overhead by approximately 1/3 from it’s high in 2005, so we can be, and are, profitable at these lower sales volumes.

We remain number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets. Our Napa office business is 153% ahead of 2007 on a year to date basis compared to our Napa based competitors whose businesses are minus 7%, minus 18%, plus 13% and minus 24% on a year to date comparative basis. For firms based in Napa County, we are now the third largest in unit production over the past twelve months. Cheri Stanley, in our Napa office, is the highest producing agent based in the Napa Valley with 72 units and $25.6 million in dollar volume in the past twelve months.

October, 2008 TrendGraphix Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Napa County (902) were equal to last month, but it is 10% below the inventory (1,007) at this time last year. New sales (95) and closed escrows (107) were well ahead of the pace of a year ago (67 and 66, respectively). The sale of bank owned properties (REOs) is strongly influencing the current market. Of the 107 closed sales in October, 2008, 60% of them were distressed sales (either bank owned, in foreclosure or “short sales” where the lender accepts less than full payment for their loan). In American Canyon, 23 of the 25 closed sales fell into the distressed sale category. The median price of homes closed in October in Napa County was $311,500 for the distressed sale segment of the market and $535,000 for the “conventional” segment of the market. Something that I referred to previously as “a tale of two markets”. It is expected that this will continue well into 2009, and perhaps beyond that.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: New sales in the St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) were up from a month ago (September, 2008) when there were 4 new sales. In October, there were 10 new sales and 8 closings. This compares to 12 new sales and 8 closings in October, 07. Up Valley inventory of unsold homes stands at 187 homes in October, 25% higher than in October, ‘07. The market in Up Valley can still be described as “sluggish” and “selective”.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (2,354) in Sonoma County at the end of October was 21% lower than a year ago. New sales (532) in October, ‘08 were consistent with last month and were 125% ahead of the pace in October, ‘07 (235). Of the 592 closed sales in October, ’08, 395, or 67%, were distressed sales. The median price of homes closed in October in Sonoma County was $290,000 for the distressed sale segment of the market and $481,000 for the “conventional” segment of the market. Also “a tale of two markets” expected to continue well into 2009, and perhaps beyond that.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (234) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of October ’08 was 15% below that for the period of October, 2007 (274). There were 30 new sales for the month (compared to 25 a month ago and 15 in October ‘07). Of the 33 closed sales in October, ’08, 13, or 39%, were distressed sales. This compares to 67% on a county wide basis. The median price of homes closed in October in the Sonoma Valley was $345,000 for the distressed sale segment of the market and $537,500 for the “conventional” segment of the market. Also, “a tale of two markets”.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (116) in Healdsburg at the end of October was equal to that of September and was 13% below the 133 homes available in October, ‘07. New sales (15) and closed escrows (20) compared to 8 and 5, respectively, in October, 2007, so the market is picking up in Healdsburg.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (124) in Windsor at the end of October was continuing to decline over the level in the past few months and was 33% lower than that of October a year ago (184). New sales were steady at 30 units compared to 29 last month. They were significantly higher than the 10 new sales in October a year ago. Of the 30 closed sales in October, ’08, 21, or 70% were distressed. The median price of homes closed in October in Windsor was $370,000 for the distressed sale segment of the market and $382,000 for the “conventional” segment of the market. These two numbers are uncharacteristically close so there is less of “a tale of two markets” than we see in other parts of the region.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (91) in October, 2008 climbed from 85 units a month ago, and remains well below the 108 units available at this time in October, 2007. New sales and closings have improved over the past few months at 15 to 18 respectively. Of the 18 homes that closed in October, 12 of them were distressed sales. The median price of homes closed in October in Cloverdale was $265,000 for the distressed sale segment of the market and $450,000 for the “conventional” segment of the market. Again, “a tale of two markets” that is expected to extend well into 2009 or beyond.

Solano Trends: Solano County is somewhat of a bridge between the North Bay and the Central Valley. The real estate market is closer to the Central Valley market with the large number of distressed sales. Inventory of homes and condominiums at the end of October (2684) was 19% lower than a year ago. New sales (621) were 252% ahead of the pace in October, 2007. Of the 514 homes that closed in October, 495 of them were distressed. That represents 96% of the closings. The median price of homes closed in October in Solano County was $255,000 for the distressed sale segment of the market and $325,000 for the “conventional” segment of the market. In comparison, a more affluent market, Marin County, had only 30% of it’s sales in October represented by distressed sales and the variance between the median price of distressed sales and conventional sales was $392,000 compared to $850,000. Tales of two markets in very diverse markets.

Please contact any of our Wine Country agents for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports – a Frank Howard Allen Realtors exclusive.

Welcome to our new Lake County sales agent: Sally Kros has joined Frank Howard Allen Realtors, the Wine Country Group. An established Lake County agent tells me: “…you sure got a good agent with Sally! She is a very nice lady and is very well respected here in Lake County”. We agree. Sally can be found in her Kelseyville office at 9030 Highway 175, her phone numbers are: Cell – 707 245 8019 and Office – 707 279 9488 and her e-mail address is surebusy2@aol.com. Sally welcomes referrals – and we welcome her on board.

Welcome, too, to new agents in our Napa office: Art Bowen, Jannette Hall, Sally Kalaveras, Ida Clark and Lark Raymond.

REO/Short Sale Forum: Wine Country Group agents will attend a “REO/Short Sale Forum” this coming Friday, 11/21, at the Kenwood Depot in Kenwood beginning at 11:30. The agenda will include:
Jeremy Olsen, NorBAR legal counsel on industry wide issues
The Top Six Things you need to know to get your buyer client qualified in today’s mortgage market
Counseling re: Deed in Lieu/ Short Sale/Foreclosure
Review of new company policies
Open sharing and idea exchange

Holiday Cheer:  All agents, staff and management are invited to Frank Howard Allen Realtor's Holiday Party to be held on Wednesday, December 3, from 4PM to 7PM at the Club at McInnis Park, 350 Smith Ranch Road, San Rafael.  We are grateful to Brennie and Larry Brackett for hosting this event for the entire company.  Please RSVP to your Office Admistrator, or to 415-898-2545 x 126, by November 20. 

Closings: Closings for the period from 11/8 thru 11/14 include: Isaac Raboy (Sonoma); Mike Caselli (Sonoma); Patty Keiser (Glen Ellen); Mara Kahn (Sonoma); Jane and Ron Pavelka (Cloverdale); Daniel Casabonne (Sonoma); Aimee Greco (Napa); and Steve and Marla Ericson (St. Helena). David Barker of our Napa Office had two sales during this period. Congratulations to all!

Birthdays: Birthdays in the past week include Sheila Kelly, Roger Olson and Gregg McCaw and . Best wishes to all!

Veterans Day: Another real estate executive, Tom Tognoli of Intero Real Estate Services, highlighted Veterans Day in his weekly update today. He sites the definition that “A veteran is someone who, at one point in their life, wrote a blank check made payable to The United States of America for an amount of “up to and including my life”. I find that a powerful thought and it gives me pause to wish all veterans, and current service men and women, safety and peace in their lives.

Frank Howard Allen Wine Country Group REO and Short Sale Forum:

We will be having a REO and Short Sale Forum for our Wine Country Group agents on Friday, 11/21 from 11:30 am to 1:30 pm, at the Kenwood Depot, 314 Warm Springs Rd., Kenwood. If you are handling REO or Short Sale transactions, your attendance is mandatory at this meeting. If you are not handling these transactions, you are still welcome to attend. The meeting will be in three parts:

11:35 to 12:15: Jeremy Olsen, legal counsel for the North Bay Association of Realtors, will be providing his perspective on the challenges that these transactions bring to us as sales agents and to our industry in general. He will also be available to answer your questions regarding NorBAR's and CAR's experience with these transactions.

12:15 to 12:45: A review and discussion of the recently announced policies and procedures that our company has adopted regarding REO and Short Sale transactions.

12:45 to 1:30: An open sharing and idea exchange regarding “best practices” relating to REO/Short Sale transactions.

The forum is a “brown bag” affair, so bring a sandwich and/or piece of fruit. We will have water and soft drinks available.

Please RSVP to your office administrator by 11/20 so that we can know how many chairs to set up.

In a separate matter, Cheri Stanley of our Napa office is organizing a brain storming/idea exchange session for agents in the Napa Valley who are handling REOs and Short Sales. This will take place at First American Title Co. at noon on Wednesday, 11/19. If you have an interest in attending this, please let me know. Cheri hopes to make this a monthly event while we are still dealing with the foreclosure and short sale market.

Texting Listing "Solution": We are exploring a texting solution for listings that has an ID on a sign rider which an individual can enter into their PDA and receive back an entire copy of the MLS public details including photos. The listing agent is notified of the contact and given the individual's text address for future farming activities. This service will cost agents $8.00/sign rider/month - i.e., 5 different sign riders equals $40.00/month. Can you please let me know if you are interested in this program and if would commit to pay for the service for a one year contract term. Thanks, and also let me know if you have any questions.

Closings: Closings for the period from 11/3 through 11/7 include: Robyn Makurak (Sonoma); Herb Heil (Sonoma); Jana Jones (Healdsburg); Mike Caselli (Sonoma); Diane Litchfield (Sonoma); Daniel Casabonne (Sonoma); Erin George (Sonoma); and Deke DeKay and Diane Harris (Healdsburg). The following agents had two sales during this period: Frank Trozzo (Napa) and Penelope La Montagne (Healdsburg). Congratulations to all!

Birthdays: Birthdays in the past week include Mechel Boucher, Susan Irvine and Jana Jones. Best wishes to all!

Things That Make Real Estate Sales Rewarding: Visit this link to see one of those things that makes real estate sales rewarding. This is a photo of Curtis Kind in our Cloverdale office with the handprints and words of thanks from the children who attend a local day care school. Curtis helped the owner of the day care facility find a new location – and they gave him this great poster as a big thank you. If you have “things that make real estate sales rewarding”, share them with me and I’ll pass them around.

Update to Policies and Procedures: Since roughly sixty percent of the transactions in the region in the past six months have been REO or Short Sale transactions (distressed sales), and since we are likely to continuing having them moving forward into 2009, and since not many agents have worked with these transactions in the past, we are adopting the following new policies:

REO and Short Sale Policies:

The pre-selling of REO/Short Sale listings is creating complaints from other agents and, more importantly, complaints from the public who believe that we are manipulating the sales process. To avoid this, the following policies shall apply to company REO and short sale transactions effective 11/1/08:

1. For REO and short sale listings, following the listing of the property in the MLS, there shall be a minimum of a forty eight hour waiting period prior to submitting an offer to the lender/owner that is generated on a dual agency basis (in-house offer). This will accommodate the proper exposure of the property to the agent community and the public. If a third party offer is presented from an agent outside the company within the 48 hour waiting period, and the lender’s policy is for us to submit offers as they are received, both the third party offer and the in-house offer may be submitted simultaneously.

2. Listing agents for REO/short properties may not undertake pre-listing (after a listing has been assigned but prior to obtaining a final listing agreement and price) marketing activities. In the normal course of discussing upcoming listings with colleagues, a listing agent may disclose the coming piece of business and potentially show it to in-house colleagues, but, no advertising may be undertaken, a sign shall not be placed, nor shall flyers be distributed on the property until the listing agreement is received from the lender. Lock boxes may be placed on the property, per lender direction for pre-listing vendor access, but no third party showings shall be undertaken until the property is officially listed and placed in the MLS. Any offers generated through the pre-exposure of the property to in-house agents shall be subject to the 48 hour waiting period described above.

3. The listing agent’s manager/broker shall be advised immediately if an offer is presented that involves either dual agency or single agent dual agency. No dual agency or single dual agency offer shall be submitted to the REO/Short sale owner without first reviewing the offer with the responsible manager/broker.

4. If multiple offers are received on REO/Short Sale listings, all offers shall be submitted to the lender unless they are patently frivolous. If an offer is going to be excluded from presentation, the agent shall review the details of this with your manager/broker as soon as possible. In no event, shall a Short Sale seller receive proceeds from an offer, in or out of escrow, unless approved in writing, in advance, by the lender(s) involved.

We will be working to see that something similar to these standards is adopted by the other firms in our market place with whom we are working.

A Billion: A friend based this by me the other day. I haven’t checked the math, but…

How many zeros are in a billion?
The next time you hear a politician (Republican or Democrat) use the word 'billion' in a casual manner, think about this. A billion is a difficult number to comprehend, but one advertising agency did a good job of putting that figure into some perspective in one of it's releases.
A. A billion seconds ago it was 1959.
B. A billion minutes ago Jesus was alive.
C. A billion hours ago our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.
D. A billion days ago no-one walked on the earth on two feet.
E. A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and 20 minutes, at the rate our government is spending it.

Now that the election is over – let’s see if we can back off on some of those billions.

Steve Harney: Thanks to Phyllis Brookshire for sending along her notes from Steve Harney’s presentation last week at Allen Tate’s Fall Convention in Raleigh, N. C. Some highlights are:
“The US government is “all in” betting on the housing market to bring the economy back. And we make our living in the housing market. 2009 should be a very good year”.
“How are you perceived by your clients? You need to be the expert. You have to know your stuff well enough to teach it, not just know it. And probably most importantly, it is our obligation to deliver the truth, not good news or bad news, but the truth to our clients”.
“For buyers, the bottom is here. Take advantage of current mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are expected to rise in the coming year. Let’s look at payments: $400,000 house @ 6% = $2,398.20 monthly payment
$375,000 house @ 7% = $2,494.88 monthly payment
Buyers are losing money “waiting for the bottom”.
“And what a good time to move up. If you are in a $300,000 home and take a 10% hit, you give up $30,000. If you move up to a $400,000 home and it is priced with a 10% savings, you save $40,000. Your buyer is $10,000 to the good!”
“We have to manage fear (low confidence) with our clients:
Step 1: Make them feel significant; I care; Paddle out to them to help them face to face.
Step 2: Make them feel safe; Tell them to hold onto your life raft.
Step 3: Make them feel certain; Tell them the plan.
You cannot skip to step 3. You have to work through the 3 steps”.

Check out Steve Harney's website at http://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/


Consumer Confidence: Since I was in the new housing business in Chicago in the early 1970s, I have watched the Consumer Confidence Index as a guide to how the demand for housing is. The Consumer Confidence Index was first established in 1967 and last month, in October, it fell to an all time low. In light of this report, Steps 1, 2 and 3 above make absolute sense to me. With the election completed, and the theme of hope expressed throughout President-elect Obama’s campaign, lets look for last months index to be the bottom and see improvement beginning this month.

Closings: Closings for the period from 10/13 through 10/31 include: Sheila Whitney (Sonoma); Nicki Rector (Healdsburg); Lisa Ehreth (Healdsburg); Felice Torri (Sonoma); Isaac Raboy (Sonoma); David Barker (Napa); Tammi Mazziliano (Napa); Daniel Casabonne (Sonoma); Gina Clyde (Sonoma); Ann Amtower (Healdsburg); Randy Haak (Glen Ellen); Diane Litchfield (Sonoma); Hank Lane (Healdsburg); Patty Keiser (Glen Ellen); and Bill Streett (Sonoma). The following agents had two sales during this period: Mike Caselli (Sonoma); Dave Reynolds (Cloverdale); Linda Alioto (St. Helena); Robyn Makurak (Sonoma); Cheri Stanley (Napa) and Sheila Deignan (Sonoma). Jane and Ron Pavelka of our Cloverdale office had three closings and Susan Parker and Doug Del Fava had four closings during this period. Congratulations to all!

Birthdays: Birthdays in the past three weeks include Curtis Kind, Steve Ericson, Bob Beckstrom, Hank Lane and Susie Savino. Best wishes to all!

Leadership: I have in my quotations collection this quote from an unknown author: “An effective leader must be a master of two ends of the spectrum: Ideas at the highest level of abstraction and Actions at the most mundane level of detail”.

Through last weekend and the early part of last week we had a group called the Leadership Council visit our firm. There were twelve leaders of real estate companies around the country who took their valuable time to look at our firm and give us constructive feedback about how we can improve. I have to credit them with leadership as described above – they worked very hard and explored a large range of ideas on our behalf. My thanks go out to each of them.

From consolidating our “eight passwords list”, to putting exterior lighting on our Healdsburg listings, to staff and Earl and I being more present in each office on a regular basis - there are small refinements to make, larger changes to undertake and grand ideas to test. We will be working on all of these in the coming months. Thanks, too, to our staff and sales agents who participated in this assessment.

One more thing on leadership and character – In Wednesday’s New York Times, Thomas Friedman wrote an article entitled “Why How Matters”. I encourage each of you to read it. The link is: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/15/opinion/15friedmanhttp://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/15/opinion/15friedman.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=why%20how%20matters&st=cse&oref=slogin
“How” certainly matters as part of our company culture, and I am very proud of that and how our agents reflect that character.

Company Update: Wine Country Group Update for September, 2008

For the third quarter of 2008, The Wine Country Groups closings were 6% ahead of the rate for 2007. However, with the lower average price of the transactions that we are handling this year, our dollar volume is off by 30% year over year. New sales for the quarter were 76% ahead of the third quarter of 2007, so certainly there are buyers out there. Listings are also ahead of a year ago by 40%. Our available inventory numbers 206 listings vs. 231 at this time a year ago. Our average listing value is down from $900,000 in September, 2007 to $800,000 at the end of September of this year. We have 96 open escrows going into October vs. 67 a year ago, but the dollar volume is closer than the unit numbers, $96,000,000 compared to $67,000,000.

Our Napa office continues to do extremely well, closing 16 sides in September, ’08 compared to 3 a year ago. Nearly all of that volume is bank owned properties, or short sales, and they are doing a great job servicing these demanding accounts. We remain number one in market share in our Sonoma, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets.

September Market Update: Sonoma County: Closed sales in the month of September reached 410 units – 46% more than in September, 2007, and 5% ahead of August, 2008 (392 units). New sales (443) in September, ’08 were 107% ahead of new sales (214) in September a year ago and 10% ahead of the pace (402) in August, ’08. I have not extracted the bank owned and short sale properties from these figures, but my guess is that at least 60% of the activity was in distressed properties. I will be looking into that analysis next week and give you the data.

The inventory of unsold homes (2140) was 23% lower than at this time a year ago when it stood at 2784 units. The county is down to 4.8 month supply of inventory based on new sales compared to a 13 month supply a year ago. So activity is certainly in a positive vein. The price per square foot ($258.00/sf) of sold homes was at it’s lowest point in four years and compared to $354.00/sf a year ago. Again, I have not yet determined the impact of distressed sales on that figure, but I am certain that is significant and that non-distressed sales enjoyed a far higher value than the distressed sales.

Sonoma Valley: Closed sales in the Sonoma Valley totaled 26 in September, 2008 compared to 16 in September, 2007 and 31 in August, 2008. New sales totaled 21 in September ’08 compared to 14 in September ’07 and 27 in August, ’08. The inventory of unsold homes totaled 202 in September compared to 255 a year ago – a 26% decrease. Within the inventory and sales, there is a large discrepancy between the average asking price ($1,000,000) and the average selling price ($558,000). This probably indicates that most of the sales are occurring at the lower end of the market and that the higher priced inventory is taking longer to sell. The median price of sold homes was $380,000 in September, 2008.

Healdsburg: There was a small positive bump in the Healdsburg market in that there were 13 new sales in September, 2008, compared to just 5 a year ago and 9 in August, 2008. Let’s hope that that trend continues. Unsold inventory remains ahead of a year ago (107 v. 101) bucking the overall trend in the County. The median price of sold homes remained the highest in the County at $528,000.

Cloverdale: Activity improved in Cloverdale in the month of September, 2008. There were 13 closed sales compared to 4 in September, ’07 and 6 in August, ’08. New sales also totaled 13 compared to 7 in September, ’07 and 11 in August, ’08. The inventory of unsold homes is down to 74 units compared to 106 a year ago and the market contains a 5.7 month supply of inventory based on the current pace of sales. The price per square foot of homes sold ($188/sf) compared to $246/sf a year ago and $177/sf last month.

Napa: The city of Napa closed sales (84) in September, 2008, were at a pace 75% ahead of the 48 homes that closed in September, ’07. New sales (96) in September, ’08 were 78% of the pace in September ’07 and equal to the pace of August, 2007. Inventory is down to 812 units – 10% lower than the 902 units that were available in September, 2007. There is an 8.5 months supply of unsold homes based on the new sales in September. The price per square foot ($320/sf) of sold homes in September, ’08 was 15% lower than the price per square foot ($376/sf) a year ago, but I have not factored out the distressed sales which are sure to have an impact.

American Canyon: Though we don’t have an office in American Canyon, we were the number one firm in market share in September, 2008. There were 26 closings in the month of September compared to 9 a year ago and 19 in August, ’08. There were 23 new sales in the month compared to 7 a year ago and 26 last month. Inventory is down to 120 units compared to 177 a year ago, but well ahead of the 98 last month. We believe that 100% of the sales in American Canyon in September were bank owned or short sale properties. I will do an analysis on the inventory next week to see how many of the properties for sale are distressed. The price per square foot of the sold properties has been steady over the past four months at $168/sf. It seems to have reached “the floor”.

Up Valley, Napa Co:  Like Healdsburg, Up Valley is the one of the two Wine Country markets where inventory remains above a year ago (181 to 160) and sales are slow.  There were 9 closings in September, 2008, compared to 14 in August, ’08 and 6 in September, ’07.  The average “Days on Market” for the homes that sold in September were 197 – so some older inventory was selling.  The sales price to original list price for these homes was 85%.  There were 5 new sales this past month compared to 15 in August and 8 in September, ’07.  Overall, a very slow time in Up Valley. 

Solano County: We are doing a good deal of business in western Solano County. All the business that we are doing is bank owned properties and the vast majority of all transactions in the county are distressed sales. Closings in September, 2008, 419 units, were 167% ahead of the sales (157) in September, ’07. New sales (536) were 264% ahead of the pace in September, ’07. Inventory was down 19% from a year ago and there is now just a 4.7 month supply of inventory compared to a 13 month supply a year ago. The median price ($261,000) for homes closed in September, ’08 was equal to that in August, ’08, and 31% below that of September, ’07. It will be interesting to see if the pace of foreclosures moderates in Solano County moving into the next few months.

I attended the Economic Summit for Solano County a few weeks ago and here are a few interesting, and sometimes startling, facts from the summit:
1. Construction material costs are down 5.6% over the past year
2. Lumber costs are at down 40% and the lowest in twenty years
3. The City of Fairfield usually issues 700+ housing permits per year. Through the end of August, 2008, they have issued 14 new housing permits.
4. The retail industry (all those discount stores along I-80) is really in the tank. The retail specialists listed a half dozen national retailers that have declared bankruptcy this year and another dozen that are in danger of doing so. I’m thankful not to be in that business!

Webstats: Our internet statistics continue to climb. Our site visits increased to 7,193 for the quarter ended 9/20/08 compared to 6,896 in the 2nd quarter. Visitors to our website came from 35 countries/territories around the world. 30% of our traffic comes from direct traffic, 48% from “referring sites” and 22% from search engines. If you have a property website, be sure to use the built in “Google Analytics” to evaluate your traffic.

Recognition: Lori Greenstein Bremner of our Orion Partners Commercial Property Management operations received the prestigious “State Lead Ambassador” award from the American Cancer Society in a Leadership Summit in Washington D. C. last week. Lori has been at the forefront of advocacy work for the American Cancer Society in California. She is a inspiring leader in this critical area affecting so many families in our towns, state and country. Thanks, Lori, for all that you do.

Closings: As mentioned in the last edition of the Broker Blog, I have some catching up to do on recognizing closings. For the period 9/1 to 10/10, the following agents had closings: First and foremost, Aimee Greco of our Napa office and Richard Hurst of our Cloverdale office had their first closing as FHA-WCG agents – wishing them many more! Other agents with closing include: Dee Grohmann (Healdsburg); Heidi Diamantini (Healdsburg); Mary Beth Foster (Sonoma); Hank Lane (Healdsburg); Michelle Delfino (Healdsburg); Kendra Martin (Sonoma); Constance Sharpe (Glen Ellen); Pat Brown (Sonoma); Frank Lazzarotto (Sonoma); Patty Keiser (Glen Ellen); Sheila Deignan (Sonoma); Charlene Schanzer (Healdsburg); Faeli Vyn (Napa); Debbie Hendershot (Healdsburg); Erin George (Sonoma); Joan Harrington (Sonoma); Mari Johnson (Sonoma); Randy Haak (Glen Ellen); and Felice Torri (Sonoma). The following agents had two closings during this period: Joyce Davison (Sonoma); Svetlana Ternovskaya (Napa); Holly-Evans White (St. Helena); Ron and Jane Pavelka (Cloverdale); Lisa Albertson (Sonoma). The following agents had three closings during this period: Jana Jones (Healdsburg); Penelope La Montagne (Healdsburg); Frank Trozzo (Napa); Bill Streett (Sonoma) and Daniel Casabonne (Sonoma). Linda Alioto of our St. Helena office closed four transaction sides during this period. Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker of our Kenwood office had six closings. David Barker of our Napa office had seven closings, and Cheri Stanley of our Napa office closed a whopping ten transactions in this five week period. Congratulations and well done by all!

Birthdays: Birthdays in the past week include Allyson Valente and Ryan De Mello.

Memorial: A memorial service for Dorothea Goehring was held on Saturday, October 18 at 2:00 pm at Faith Lutheran Church in Sonoma. Dorothea was a Realtor with Henry for much of the last thirty years – at times, being the top producer in the company. In my experience with Dorothea, she loved her clients and associates in the business, loved a party, and I will always remember her fondly.

A Tale of Two Markets: The article that I produced last month has been picked up by multiple newspapers and business journals. I appreciate the positive response and will continue to analyze this phenomenon in the months ahead. If you didn't have the chance to read the article – look down to the last broker blog posting.

Company Update:  For August, 2008, The Wine Country Groups closings were ahead of the rate for 2007, 61 closings vs. 46 a year ago. New sales for the month were 27% ahead of August, 2007, and new listings were equal to those of August, ’07. Our available inventory numbers 225 listings vs. 270 at this time a year ago. Our average listing value is down from $935,000 in August, 2007 to $751,000 at the end of August of this year. We have 117 open escrows going into September vs. 65 a year ago, but the dollar volume is closer than the unit numbers, $83,000,000 compared to $59,000,000.

Year to date numbers are reflective of the month. We are ahead in closings, year to date, but slightly behind in dollar volume. Our Napa office has been performing exceptionally, closing 110 sides in 2008 compared to 22 a year ago. The Sonoma office is holding its own with 164 closings compared to 170 last year. And our Kenwood office has been doing well closing 29 sales year to date compared to 21 a year ago.

We remain number one in market share in our Sonoma, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets and we have now tripled our market share in the Napa Valley on a year over year basis.

Education:   A reminder of the Legal Updates and Bulls-eye trainings. Check with your manager if you are not aware of the details. The company pays for the cost of this training, so take advantage of it!

Website/Technology Updates:   The first official Wine Country Group Property Website v.2 has been posted. Visit www.5050lavender.com to take a look. Note the larger photos, increased photo capacity, new color template, send to friend & bookmark features, and more. Allyson will be working to set up new listing orders as they come in and then will be working to convert those requesting updates of their existing property websites. Great job done by Lourdes, Susie and Allyson in making these new improvements.

Speaking of websites, we have updated the programming to our www.bankprops.net website so that it now contains many, many more listings than previously possible. Thanks to Ally and Lourdes for working with BAREIS and iHomefinders on this update.

Also, coming soon, www.winecountrymobilehomes. com to be a source of searches for those seeking mobile homes across the entire Wine Country. This will be live in a couple of weeks and I will let you know.

One last technology update – we are working with a vendor to provide instant messaging/texting capabilities for our listings. You’re going to love this convenient and tech savvy way for individuals to gain information about your listings – instantaneously while they are parked in front of the house. More to follow soon.

Important stuff! The following three things are important to our escrow and financial staff – they pay the checks, so it is good to keep them happy!
1. Facing Sheets – please send in complete facing sheets. I’ve seen them with no title company, no contact info, no commission figures, etc. We acknowledge that you have to send these in within three days of ratifying a contract, but much of this information is available if you just take a few minutes to complete the form. Thank you.
2. Change of closing date – Lori is always looking at pending closings for company cash flow management. When you know that the closing will be delayed, or if an extension has been negotiated, please send Lori and Regina an e-mail so they can plan accordingly. Thank you.
3. Transaction Logs – the keeping of transaction logs has gotten sloppy. We are told over and over by legal counsel that a complete transaction log will be our best defense in a legal confrontation. E-mail provides a great means to have a running log, but if you are submitting e-mail messages, please include those with responses from the client. Thank you.

Closings: We have had a bunch of closings since the last Broker Blog update, but I do not have access to those lists as I am preparing this today – so, I will recap all in the next update.

Birthdays: Leo Merle is celebrating the milestone of his 70th birthday this week. Happy birthday to Leo as well as Howard Powell, Lori Greenstein Bremner and Monica Steensma.

Travel Plans: On a final note, Diane and I will be attending a Marketing and Technology Expo the balance of this week being presented by “Real Trends” in Denver. We will have both cell phone and e-mail access. Have a great week!

In the comments of the blog - you can see Lois' inquiry. My premise is that in markets that are heavily influenced by REO/Short Sale sales, there are two different markets - the REO/Short Sale market dictated by large corporate lenders trying to clear their balance sheets, and the conventional market - where the discretion of the buyer and seller creates a different, in my view, more "market driven" dynamic. I believe that we need to watch this dichotmy over the coming months.

Instructions for life: A month or so ago, I came across a twenty point list in my “Quotations” file that I think is pretty good. Here are the last of the 20 items.

I N S T R U C T I O N S F O R L I F E (4th bunch)

16. Once a year, go someplace you've never been before.

17. Remember that the best relationship is one in which your love for each other exceeds your need for each other.

18. Judge your success by what you had to give up in order to get it

19. Call your mother (or your father).

20. Approach love and cooking with reckless abandon.

A Tale of Two Markets: I recently completed the following article. I’d enjoy your comments (there is a comment box at the very bottom of the blog, or e-mail me directly).

A Tale of Two Markets or How the Sale of REO and Short Sale Properties is Distorting the Median Value of the Average Home

In the month of July, 50% of the single family homes that sold in Sonoma County, CA, were either bank owned homes (REOs) or short sales wherein the lender on the property received less than the amount due on the loan. In industry parlance, short sales are “REOs waiting to happen” as these homes are generally in the foreclosure process. These are what are called “distressed sales”.

The REO/Short sale home sales for the month had a median price of $320,000 The non REO/Short sale, or “conventional” sales had a median price of $530,000. So my premise is that we are dealing with two real estate markets and that the market cannot be whitewashed with one brush.

People are always asking me how the market is and how the value of homes are holding up. If the median price of all home sales is used, the market is off 32% in value from a year ago and off 36% from the median price in July, 2005, generally considered near the “peak” of the market. If the median price of the conventional home sales is used in this comparison, the market is off just 8% from a year ago and 13% from the peak period of 2005. This is important information. We should not all be suffering that our homes are losing their value and that we are getting poorer by the day when it is banks and institutions who are creating these huge discounts to get these assets off their books and to get out from under being landlords of vacant and typically distressed real estate. They are taking the losses, not the typical homeowner.

I never like comparing the general single family home market to the stock market, but I know that there are a lot of stock portfolios that are off more than 13% over the past three years – just look at the financial industry stocks alone.

I’m finding that appraisers are not taking into account the anomaly that this REO/Short sale “selling binge ” is creating in the market. Because a bank desperately wants to sell an asset on my block, does it mean that my home will sell for that much less, or is worth that much less? I don’t believe so. I had a vendor in my house the other day and he said “this place will never lose it’s value, it’s in such a great location”. If you are in a transaction and the appraiser is not making a distinction between these two markets, I believe that it is up to us as owners, or real estate professionals, to help them with the analysis. The appraising industry is pretty rigid in it’s approach to value, and I don’t believe we have encountered a market such as this one in our lifetimes.

I’ve seen homes that were purchased in 2004 sell in 2008 for more than they cost in 2004 because they are very desirable. I’ve seen a home offered at $4,200,000 receive an offer within two weeks for $4,200,000 because it was very desirable to that buyer. Same with a home listed for $3,300,000 that got an offer of $3,100,000 within the first week of being on the market. One might call these “discretionary” sales and purchases and they generally remained unaffected by the “other” market for REO/Short sale properties.

So my counsel to home owners is that your home may be worth more than you’re thinking, or at least more than you are being told by the media or the appraisal industry. At any one time, a small, small fraction of the housing stock (approximately 1.4% in the Sonoma County in the month of July) is on the market. Does that small amount of activity dictate the value of my home when I’m not planning to sell for five years? Not to any degree that I’m going to worry about. If, on the other hand, I want to sell next week and there are three bank owned properties for sale on my block, well, I’m going to have to reduce my price to compete with those distressed sales. If I can hold on, maybe I might rent the house out if I can afford to, the rental market is strong right now. Otherwise, I’ll sit tight for now.

Don’t be distressed by the headlines, your personal situation is likely extremely different from the bank who owns the house down the block. I suggest you speak with a local Realtor who knows the ins and outs of the local market if you are concerned about the value and marketability of your home. It’s really a tale of two markets.

Launch of Updated Property Websites: You can order the new property websites for your new listings beginning today. The order form will be updated by Lourdes by the end of the week, but in the meantime, fill out the current order form and put in the comments that you desire the new templates. Twenty one choices, larger images, unlimited photos, vertical photo options, and more. Great stuff, and all at no agent cost!

Loan Modification Assistance: Businesses are springing up to help borrowers with their modification process. Some seem a little more “above board” than others, for example check out www.consumerprotectioninstitute.com.

iHomefinder – IDX Provider Update: Here are some updated stats from the real estate search engine portion of our website which is managed by iHomefinders –

General Traffic
• 2405 new visitors
• 2483 searches
• 23791 properties viewed

Your average site visitor conducted 3 searches and viewed 10 listings
• Activity on your site is UP compared to last month
• You are in the top 2.0% of our most active Web sites on a nationwide basis

We distributed 16 new leads to our agents from last month's activity.

Closings: The following agents also enjoyed closings between 8/18 and 8/31: Carol Lexa (Healdsburg); Tammy Owens (Sonoma); Lisa Albertson (Sonoma): Diane Harris and Deke DeKay (Healdsburg); Frank Trozzo (Napa); Corrie Sterbentz (Sonoma); Constance Sharpe (Glen Ellen); Dmitra Sutsos (Sonoma); and Darlene Riddle (Healdsburg). The following agents closed two sides during this period: David Barker (Napa); Ann Amtower (Healdsburg); and Penelope La Montagne (Healdsburg). Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma office closed three transactions during this period. Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker of our Kenwood office closed seven transactions and Cheri Stanley of our Napa office closed a mighty nine sides over this two week period. Well done, and congratulations to all!

Instructions for life: A month or so ago, I came across a twenty point list in my “Quotations” file that I think is pretty good. I don’t know where I got it, but I’d like to share five points in each of my next four blog updates.

I N S T R U C T I O N S F O R L I F E (3rd bunch)

11. Live a good, honorable life. Then when you get older and think back, you'll be able to enjoy it a second time.

12. A loving atmosphere in your home is the foundation for your life. Do all you can to create a tranquil, harmonious home.

13. In disagreements with loved ones, deal only with the current situation. Don't bring up the past.

14. Share your knowledge. It's a way to achieve immortality.

15. Be gentle with the earth.

Wine Country Group Update for July, 2008: For July, 2008, The Wine Country Group’s closings were behind the rate of 2007, but ahead of the rate of 2006. The month was buoyed by 26 closings in our Sonoma Valley offices and 19 in our Napa office. New sales for the month were 37% ahead of July, 2007, and new listings were 50% ahead of July, ’07, so we should have strong months ahead.

We remain number one in market share in our Sonoma, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets and we have now tripled our market share in the Napa Valley on a year over year basis. We have been extremely active in the REO (bank owned properties) market out of our Napa office. On a year to date basis, our closing are up nearly 5 times (nearly 500%) while our competitors based in Napa have seen their year to date year over year business fall an average of 25%. With the organizational and sales skills that we are building in this market, we look to hold onto our gains as the market transitions to a more traditional one over the next few years. In the meantime, we know that there are a lot more REO properties in the pipeline.

If you might have an interest in bank owned properties, you can visit our website: www.bankprops.net, which identifies our current available listings.

Updates to Property Websites: We remain committed to providing great professional websites for our listings at no cost to our agents. We are launching Phase 2 of our property websites with many great improvements on 9/1. Here is a sampling of the upgrades:
1. Significantly larger primary images – you know that “a picture is worth a thousand words”.
2. No limit on the number of photos. We will keep a minimum of six, and we will not post photos that do not enhance the marketing. But, if you have twenty good photos – you can use them!
3. There are two new primary menu items: “Send to a Friend” and “Bookmark”. We hope that these will get viewers to use your websites more.
4. There is a built in “Flyer Maker” that will provide a default flyer if your Impact Marketing flyer is not yet available.
5. There are seven new templates to give you more choices for your “layout”. And, each comes in three color combinations – that gives you twenty one new options. You can migrate your existing website to a couple of these new templates.
6. There is a new “vertical photo” on the forms pages that gives you a great opportunity to use your vertical photo or crop a horizontal.

Once these enhancements are launched for the property websites, we will next make them for the agent websites. Stay tuned!

July, 2008 TrendGraphix Analysis: (Contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports – a Frank Howard Allen Realtors exclusive).

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Napa County (807) was stable on a month to month basis, and is 11% below the inventory (906) at this time last year. New sales (109) and closed escrows (93) were well ahead of the pace of a year ago (61 and 67, respectively). There was also a strong increase from the 86 new sales that occurred in June, 2008. The sale of bank owned properties (REOs) is strongly influencing the current market. Of the 98 closed sales in July, 2008, over 50% of them were either bank owned, in foreclosure or “short sales” where the lender accepts less than full payment for their loan. In American Canyon, 26 of the 27 closed sales fell into the bank owned,/in foreclosure /short sale category. The good news in American Canyon is that there is just a 3.4 month supply of unsold inventory and prices have stabilized at about $170 per square foot. The City of Napa had 23 of the 61 closings in July in the bank owned/in foreclosure/short sale category which means that only one of the Up Valley sales were in this category. The median price of homes closed in the City of Napa for July was $450,000.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: New sales in the St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) were up from a month ago (June, 2008) when there were 4 new sales. In July, there were 11 new sales and 9 closings. This compares to 14 new sales and 14 closings in July, 07. Up Valley inventory of unsold homes stands at 175 homes in July, 13% higher than in July, ‘07. The market in Up Valley can still be described as “sluggish”.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (2,283) in Sonoma County at the end of July was 11% lower than a year ago. New sales (394) in July, ‘08 were consistent with the last two months and were 20% ahead of the pace in July, ‘07 (328). Of the 395 closed sales in July, ’07, 241, or 61% were in the bank owned,/in foreclosure /short sale category. The median price of the homes closed in July, ’07 feel below $400,000 and equaled $286/sf – both four year lows. continued to drop as more REO (bank owned properties) sell and depress that figure. A year ago the median price of sold homes in the County was $600,000. Based on the current pace of sales, the inventory of unsold homes is under a 6 month supply compared to 13.9 months in January of this year.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (206) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of July ’08 was below that for the period of July, 2007 (222). There were 32 new sales for the month (compared to 27 a month ago and 27 in July ‘07). Of the 29 homes that closed in July ’08, 11 of them were in the bank owned,/in foreclosure /short sale category. This is 38% of the closings compared to a 61% figure for the overall county.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (111) leveled off in Healdsburg in July compared to 123 in June and was 26% higher than the 88 homes available in July, ‘07. New sales (9) and closed escrows (10) in July were 53% and 38% lower than in July, 2007, so it remains a sluggish market in Healdsburg. Of the 10 homes that closed in July ’08, 3 of them were in the bank owned,/in foreclosure /short sale category.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (138) in Windsor at the end of July was consistent with the level over the past few months and was slightly lower than that of July a year ago (148). Sales were steady at 25 units compared to 22 a year ago. 15 of the 22 closings in July ’08 (68%) were in the bank owned,/in foreclosure /short sale category, so this is certainly impacting the Windsor market. The median price ($407,000) of closed homes and the average per square foot price ($235.00) remain stable over the last several months, but are behind what they were a year ago ($534,000 and $322/sf respectively).

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (82) in July, 2008 climbed from 77 units a month ago, and remains well below the 107 units available at this time in July, 2007. New sales and closings are consistent over the past five months at 6 to 10 per month. Of the 9 homes that closed in July, 5 of them were in the bank owned,/in foreclosure /short sale category. The average price per square foot of homes that closed in July was stable at $223/sf.

CAR Publishes New Article on Deeds in Lieu of Foreclosure: 
C.A.R.'s Member Legal Services team has published a new legal article, "Deeds in Lieu of Foreclosure." A deed in lieu of foreclosure is a transfer of real property from the property owner to the lender. This process provides property owners with an alternative to a short sale or foreclosure.

This article can be found on the What's New and Legal Articles pages of the Legal section on C.A.R. Online (www.car.org), or go directly http://www.car.org/legal/2008articles/deed-in-lieu-foreclosure/.

Economic Overview – The following is from my investment advisor. I think it’s a pretty good summary: “While the broad market briefly broke below (7/10-16 and 7/28-29) the sideways trading range I mentioned in previous notes, it is now back into that range again. Economic data continues to support a slowing domestic and global economy that should let inflation abate, particularly now that the commodities have sold off sharply--lower oil is like a tax rebate. This sideways action could continue into next year as we work through the extra supply of real estate, and continue to write down the overleveraged financings in the mortgage, credit card and other debt markets”.

Education: NorBar has some great education programs coming up including GRI and SRES courses. Log on to http://www.norbarrealtor.com/ and scroll down to “Seminars and Classes” to check the schedule.

Realtors can be a thoughtful group: “The Montreal Gazette reports the winner of a $3.6 million lotto - almost a year ago - has finally come forward.
The winner is a 24-year-old real estate agent Peter Dushop, who said he knew he had won but didn't want to claim the prize until he had thought through how it would affect him and the people around him.
Had he waited three weeks longer, his prize would have expired unclaimed. As it is, the newspaper calculated he had lost almost $100,000 in interest on the money.”

And, of course, he was smart enough to redeem the prize before it’s expiration. I don’t really believe in the various lotteries, but good luck to Peter in the next phase of his life.

Closings:   Darlene Riddle of our Healdsburg office, Richard Hurst of our Cloverdale office and Holly Evans-White of our St. Helena office each celebrated their first closings with Frank Howard Allen Realtors - the Wine Country Group in the past two weeks.  Wishing them many more!

The following agents also enjoyed closings between 7/28 and 8/14: Diane Harris and Deke DeKay (Healdsburg); Leo Merle (Sonoma); Diane Litchfield (Sonoma); Bill Streett (Sonoma); Steve and Marla Ericson (St. Helena); Greg McCaw (Sonoma); Susan Irvine (Sonoma); Sheila Deignan (Sonoma); Lisa Albertson (Sonoma); Sheila Kelly (Napa); Alicia Robledo (Sonoma); Herb Heil (Sonoma); Faeli Vyn (Napa); Kendra Martin (Sonoma) and Bob Beckstrom (St. Helena). The following agents closed two sides during this period: Linda Alioto (St. Helena); Isaac Raboy (Sonoma); Corrie Sterbentz (Sonoma); David Barker (Napa) and Mike Caselli (Sonoma). Cheri Stanley of our Napa office and Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker of our Kenwood office closed three transactions during this period. And, Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma office closed four sides duruing this period.  Well done, and congratulations to all!

Instructions for life:  Following on the twenty point list that I found in my “Quotations” file, here is the second batch:

I N S T R U C T I O N S F O R L I F E (2nd bunch)

6. Don't let a little dispute injure a great friendship.

7. When you realize you've made a mistake, take immediate steps to correct it.

8. Spend some time alone.

9. Open your arms to change, but don't let go of your values.

10. Remember that silence is sometimes the best answer.

How the World Turns: We just spent a few days with one of Diane’s cousins from Sweden (along with her husband and son) introducing them to Northern California. We were enjoying the beautiful summer flowers in a garden in Carmel and Diane explained that we call that flower Impatiens. Her cousin replied, “that’s interesting, we call it Ambitious”.

The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008: As you likely know, the President signed the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 on Wednesday of this week. NAR has a nice summary of the key provisions of the Act. Visit this link to review the key points.

A friend recently shared an analogy with me comparing the current housing cycle to the opera. An operatic heroine can die an excruciatingly slow death as her arias go on and on before she finally lets go and dies amid much applause and relief. So it is with this housing cycle, seeming to be experiencing a slow, moribund demise with intrigue and villains, injured bystanders, inept officials, etc., etc. But, great drama can provide catharsis, and perhaps we will see this in time as the housing and credit markets become more stable.

The Housing Act is attempting to address the past cycle that was over stimulated by a combination of cheap money and low credit standards. There remains a lot of “cleaning up” to do, and this Act will help some, but many believe that the current cycle may linger into 2010 – and we need to be prepared to deal in it.

Wine Country Group performance: Overall, our company performance in July, 2008 was slightly behind our sales in July, 2007, but well ahead of our performance in July, 2006. With the cost cuts that we have made over the past couple of years, we had a small profit for the month. Thanks to our many agents and staff who continue to work hard in a difficult market. The star office in the month was our Napa office which closed 19 units compared to 7 a year ago.

Affordability and Consumer Confidence: Certainly, with lower median prices and low interest rates, CAR’s First Time Buyer Affordability Index continues to improve. For the state, the Index for the 1st quarter of 2008 stands at 44 compared to 26 for the 1st quarter of 2007. For the Northern Wine Country region (Sonoma, Napa and Mendocino) the index stands at 39 compared to 24 a year ago. So it is a better time for well qualified first time homebuyers.

Last week, the Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment for the month unexpectedly rose from the lowest level in 28 years. The gauge increased to 61.2 from 56.4. The news on incomes was also on the rise. The proportion of people who expect their incomes to rise over the next six months increased to 14.2 percent from a record-low 13.1 percent in June, according to today's report. Records began in 1967. I am always encouraged when consumer confidence is on the rise!

I was recently shown a thirty five year chart of Mortgage Rate History based on 30 year fixed interest rates. The rate of 6.03 in May of 2008, was in the middle of the range that we have experienced since 2002, but it’s far better than the 18.45% which was the level in October, 1981. And, we were selling homes then! So there are reasons to be optimistic, and business to be done.

Closings: The following agents also enjoyed closings between 7/14 and 7/27: Michelle Delfino (Healdsburg); Tammy Owens (Sonoma); Mike Caselli (Sonoma): Nicki Rector (Healdsburg); Isaac Raboy (Sonoma); Constance Sharpe (Glen Ellen); Susan Irvine (Sonoma); Sheila Deignan (Sonoma) and Ann Foley (Sonoma). The following agents closed two sides during this period: Mari Johnson (Sonoma), and Robyn Makurak (Sonoma). Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker of our Kenwood office closed three transactions during this period. And, Frank Trozzo and David Barker, both in our Napa office, closed five sales each over this two week period. Diane Krause of our Sonoma office closed two sides during this period with a combined sales volume of $7,800,000. Well done, and congratulations to all!