Broker Blog

Ac-cent-tchu-ate the Positive – As many of our agents found out in the past few days, I woke up on Monday morning wondering how to look at our business and market moving into the last quarter of the year. Suddenly, the song “Ac-cent-tchu-ate the Positive” came to mind. When I found the lyrics on line – it was just what I was feeling like:
“You’ve got to accentuate the positive
Eliminate the negative
Latch on to the affirmative
Don’t mess with Mister In-Between”

It’s that Mister In-Between that is the biggest nemesis. Sitting on the fence will get you no where.

Johnny Mercer wrote this song in 1944. We had been at war for three years. It was the year of D-Day and there was much uncertainty, but also, much solidarity. Sounds familiar. In any case, I like Doctor John’s version of the song and will be playing it over and over in my mind, if not on my iPod.

Wine Country Group Update for October, 2008: For October, 2008, The Wine Country Groups closings were ahead of the rate for 2007, 60 closings vs. 46 a year ago. New sales for the month (46) were 18% ahead of October, 2007, and new listings (44) were 46% ahead of October, ’07. A rather startling figure in October was 30 canceled sales. We basically had to sell two for everyone that succeeded. Our available inventory numbers 212 listings vs. 235 at this time a year ago. Our average listing value is down from $885,400 in November, 2007 to $689,000 this year. We have 82 open escrows going into November vs. 62 a year ago, but the dollar volume is less than a year ago, $52,000,000 compared to $69,000,000. In a positive vein, we have reduced our overhead by approximately 1/3 from it’s high in 2005, so we can be, and are, profitable at these lower sales volumes.

We remain number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets. Our Napa office business is 153% ahead of 2007 on a year to date basis compared to our Napa based competitors whose businesses are minus 7%, minus 18%, plus 13% and minus 24% on a year to date comparative basis. For firms based in Napa County, we are now the third largest in unit production over the past twelve months. Cheri Stanley, in our Napa office, is the highest producing agent based in the Napa Valley with 72 units and $25.6 million in dollar volume in the past twelve months.

October, 2008 TrendGraphix Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Napa County (902) were equal to last month, but it is 10% below the inventory (1,007) at this time last year. New sales (95) and closed escrows (107) were well ahead of the pace of a year ago (67 and 66, respectively). The sale of bank owned properties (REOs) is strongly influencing the current market. Of the 107 closed sales in October, 2008, 60% of them were distressed sales (either bank owned, in foreclosure or “short sales” where the lender accepts less than full payment for their loan). In American Canyon, 23 of the 25 closed sales fell into the distressed sale category. The median price of homes closed in October in Napa County was $311,500 for the distressed sale segment of the market and $535,000 for the “conventional” segment of the market. Something that I referred to previously as “a tale of two markets”. It is expected that this will continue well into 2009, and perhaps beyond that.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: New sales in the St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) were up from a month ago (September, 2008) when there were 4 new sales. In October, there were 10 new sales and 8 closings. This compares to 12 new sales and 8 closings in October, 07. Up Valley inventory of unsold homes stands at 187 homes in October, 25% higher than in October, ‘07. The market in Up Valley can still be described as “sluggish” and “selective”.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (2,354) in Sonoma County at the end of October was 21% lower than a year ago. New sales (532) in October, ‘08 were consistent with last month and were 125% ahead of the pace in October, ‘07 (235). Of the 592 closed sales in October, ’08, 395, or 67%, were distressed sales. The median price of homes closed in October in Sonoma County was $290,000 for the distressed sale segment of the market and $481,000 for the “conventional” segment of the market. Also “a tale of two markets” expected to continue well into 2009, and perhaps beyond that.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (234) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of October ’08 was 15% below that for the period of October, 2007 (274). There were 30 new sales for the month (compared to 25 a month ago and 15 in October ‘07). Of the 33 closed sales in October, ’08, 13, or 39%, were distressed sales. This compares to 67% on a county wide basis. The median price of homes closed in October in the Sonoma Valley was $345,000 for the distressed sale segment of the market and $537,500 for the “conventional” segment of the market. Also, “a tale of two markets”.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (116) in Healdsburg at the end of October was equal to that of September and was 13% below the 133 homes available in October, ‘07. New sales (15) and closed escrows (20) compared to 8 and 5, respectively, in October, 2007, so the market is picking up in Healdsburg.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (124) in Windsor at the end of October was continuing to decline over the level in the past few months and was 33% lower than that of October a year ago (184). New sales were steady at 30 units compared to 29 last month. They were significantly higher than the 10 new sales in October a year ago. Of the 30 closed sales in October, ’08, 21, or 70% were distressed. The median price of homes closed in October in Windsor was $370,000 for the distressed sale segment of the market and $382,000 for the “conventional” segment of the market. These two numbers are uncharacteristically close so there is less of “a tale of two markets” than we see in other parts of the region.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (91) in October, 2008 climbed from 85 units a month ago, and remains well below the 108 units available at this time in October, 2007. New sales and closings have improved over the past few months at 15 to 18 respectively. Of the 18 homes that closed in October, 12 of them were distressed sales. The median price of homes closed in October in Cloverdale was $265,000 for the distressed sale segment of the market and $450,000 for the “conventional” segment of the market. Again, “a tale of two markets” that is expected to extend well into 2009 or beyond.

Solano Trends: Solano County is somewhat of a bridge between the North Bay and the Central Valley. The real estate market is closer to the Central Valley market with the large number of distressed sales. Inventory of homes and condominiums at the end of October (2684) was 19% lower than a year ago. New sales (621) were 252% ahead of the pace in October, 2007. Of the 514 homes that closed in October, 495 of them were distressed. That represents 96% of the closings. The median price of homes closed in October in Solano County was $255,000 for the distressed sale segment of the market and $325,000 for the “conventional” segment of the market. In comparison, a more affluent market, Marin County, had only 30% of it’s sales in October represented by distressed sales and the variance between the median price of distressed sales and conventional sales was $392,000 compared to $850,000. Tales of two markets in very diverse markets.

Please contact any of our Wine Country agents for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports – a Frank Howard Allen Realtors exclusive.

Welcome to our new Lake County sales agent: Sally Kros has joined Frank Howard Allen Realtors, the Wine Country Group. An established Lake County agent tells me: “…you sure got a good agent with Sally! She is a very nice lady and is very well respected here in Lake County”. We agree. Sally can be found in her Kelseyville office at 9030 Highway 175, her phone numbers are: Cell – 707 245 8019 and Office – 707 279 9488 and her e-mail address is surebusy2@aol.com. Sally welcomes referrals – and we welcome her on board.

Welcome, too, to new agents in our Napa office: Art Bowen, Jannette Hall, Sally Kalaveras, Ida Clark and Lark Raymond.

REO/Short Sale Forum: Wine Country Group agents will attend a “REO/Short Sale Forum” this coming Friday, 11/21, at the Kenwood Depot in Kenwood beginning at 11:30. The agenda will include:
Jeremy Olsen, NorBAR legal counsel on industry wide issues
The Top Six Things you need to know to get your buyer client qualified in today’s mortgage market
Counseling re: Deed in Lieu/ Short Sale/Foreclosure
Review of new company policies
Open sharing and idea exchange

Holiday Cheer:  All agents, staff and management are invited to Frank Howard Allen Realtor's Holiday Party to be held on Wednesday, December 3, from 4PM to 7PM at the Club at McInnis Park, 350 Smith Ranch Road, San Rafael.  We are grateful to Brennie and Larry Brackett for hosting this event for the entire company.  Please RSVP to your Office Admistrator, or to 415-898-2545 x 126, by November 20. 

Closings: Closings for the period from 11/8 thru 11/14 include: Isaac Raboy (Sonoma); Mike Caselli (Sonoma); Patty Keiser (Glen Ellen); Mara Kahn (Sonoma); Jane and Ron Pavelka (Cloverdale); Daniel Casabonne (Sonoma); Aimee Greco (Napa); and Steve and Marla Ericson (St. Helena). David Barker of our Napa Office had two sales during this period. Congratulations to all!

Birthdays: Birthdays in the past week include Sheila Kelly, Roger Olson and Gregg McCaw and . Best wishes to all!