Broker Blog

Moving On:  Many of you know that Earl and I have acquired the Mayo family's interest in Frank Howard Allen Realtors, The Wine Country Group, effective this week.  Over the past thirteen years of our partnership, Henry has been an instrumental part of the growth of our firm and he has always been fully supportive of the agents, staff and his partners.  I've learned a lot from Henry over the years and I appreciate the experience that he has always been willing to share.  We will miss Henry as a partner, but we know he will remain active around the valley and that our paths will cross many times in the community.  I believe that I can say from all of us involved with the firm over the years:  Thanks Henry, and Well Done!

Best Real Estate Company:   For the eight consecutive year, Frank Howard Allen Realtors is named as the “Best Real Estate Company” in the 20th annual readers poll in the North Bay Biz magazine.  Congratulations to all of our agents and staff, and to all of the agents and staff of all of the Frank Howard Allen Realtor family offices.  I believe that it is worth mentioning here that Frank Howard Allen Realtors will be celebrating its 100th anniversary in 2010.  A milestone with which we are proud to be associated.

Wine Country Group Summary for 1st Half of 2009

We closed 351 transaction sides in the first half of 2009.  This is more than in any similar six month period since the first six months of 2005 and is 25% more transaction sides than in the first six months of 2008.  However, while the transaction activity is up, the total dollar sales volume is down by 25% to $139.6 million this year compared to $183.3 million last year.  Our average sales price for 2009 has been slightly under $400,000 compared to $650,000 a year ago.  On the positive side, the average asking price of our 236 listings at the end of June has climbed to $1,000,000 – the highest level in three years.  We also closed multiple million dollar sales in June of this year including a $6.5 million dollar sale.  In our various wine country markets, prices seemed to have bottomed as of February of this year, so things look to be improving.

We remain solidly number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets.  For the first six months of 2009, we closed two and one half times as many transactions as our nearest competitors in our Sonoma and Healdsburg offices.  Our Napa office has generated a 56% increase in transaction sides for the first half of 2009 compared to 2008.  The current market leaders only increased their business by 29% and 26% respectively, so we are continuing to grow our Napa Valley business at a healthy pace.  We respect the hard work that all of our agents are doing in these tough times to help us to remain market leaders.

June, 2009 TrendGraphix Analysis

Napa County Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June in Napa County (663) was 25% below the inventory (884) at this time last year.  New sales (107) were 13% ahead of the pace a year ago while closed escrows (103) were flat year over year.  The sale of distressed properties (bank owned sales and short sales) represented 51% of the closed escrows for the month of June, 2009, but only 18% of the active listings are distressed sales.  So, pending the release of additional foreclosed properties by banks (something we have been anticipating for several months), the market is fairly stabilized with conventional listings.  We might expect to see a slow down in the sales pace month over month as the distressed sales are making up such a smaller part of the market over the next several months.  As in most parts of wine country markets, prices seem to have reached their low point in February of this year and have been increasing steadily since then.  Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends:  The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) continues to be the slowest market in the region.  There are 210 properties available and only 7 sold in the month of June.  That represents a 30 month supply of inventory and, unlike our other Wine Country markets, inventory is up 23% from a year ago.  Up Valley available listings represent 33% percent of the overall Napa County inventory – a very unusual occurrence.  Homes take over one and a half times as long to sell Up Valley (169 average days on market) compared to entire County (99 days).  The Spring market never gained traction in Up Valley this year – it will be interesting to see when this market will kick into gear.  

Sonoma County Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,432) in Sonoma County at the end of June was 45% lower than a year ago.  New sales (466) in June were consistent with the pace in June 2008.  Distressed sales, either bank owned, in foreclosure, or “short sales” (where the lender accepts less than the full payoff of their loan) represented 57% of all closings in June, 2009 compared to 73% in the early part of this year.  Distressed listings represent only 21% of the current inventory compared to 55% in February.  So, pending the release of additional foreclosed properties by banks (something we have been anticipating for several months), the market is fairly stabilized with conventional listings.  We might expect to see a slow down in the sales pace month over month as the distressed sales are making up such a smaller part of the market over the next several months.  The median price of homes closed in June in Sonoma  County was $300,000, an increase from the low median price point of $285,000 that was reached in February.  Based on the current sales pace, there is only a 3.1 month supply of inventory, either an indication of a pending seller’s market, or, more likely, a slowing of the sales pace.  

Sonoma Valley Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (194) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of June was 20% below that of June 2008, and slightly ahead of the inventory of last month.  There were 32 new sales for the month (compared to 39 a month ago and 30 in June ‘08).   Distressed sales (bank owned properties and short sales) represented 46% of closed sales in June, 2009 and currently represent 13% of the available inventory.  This compares to distressed sales representing 33% of the inventory in February.  So, like elsewhere, the distressed properties are being absorbed.  We can expect two trends:  Sales pace will slow as these properties disappear and prices should climb as they have done in the past several months.  The average sales price in Sonoma Valley in June ($700,000) was significantly higher than the median sales price ($412,000) so there are some sales occurring in the higher price brackets including a $6.5 million dollar sale that was listed by our office.  This compares to sales in Napa County where the average price was $479,000 and the median price was $380,000 – much closer.  

Healdsburg Trends:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (96) in Healdsburg at the end of June was slightly higher than that of last month (88) but was 24% below the available inventory (127) in June 2008.  This market is certainly showing signs of rebounding.  New sales (20) in June were the highest in the past 15 months continuing an increasing trend that began in March of this year.  Sales have taken a while to happen.  The average days on market for the 15 closed sales in Healdsburg last month was 221 days – but they closed!  Selling price to original list price has also taken a bit of a beating – it has been between 75% and 85% for the past several months – a low figure for our Wine Country markets.  Most of the activity seems to be in the below $1,000,000 price range.  

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (35) at the end of June 2009 is the lowest that it has been in the past fifteen months.  It is 61% lower than this time a year ago.  Sales remain strong at 15 for the month, so there is only 2.3 months of inventory available at the current sales pace.  The median price ($302,000) for the month of June has rebounded from the low in March of this year which was $210,000.  The Cloverdale market may have trouble sustaining the current sales pace due to the lack of inventory and the absence of distressed sale properties – but, perhaps, reluctant sellers may see that the market has turned their way and consider going on the market.  

Windsor Trends:  The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (47) at the end of June is the lowest that it has been in recent history.  It is a full 66% lower than it was a year ago.  And, with a sales pace of 31 new sales for the month, the market is at an astounding low of 1.8 months of inventory.  The sales price to original listing price is a healthy 95% and prices have stabilized at about $200 per square foot.  Clearly, this market needs inventory and sellers who have been on the sidelines should be encouraged to get into the game while the market is in their favor.  It will be interesting to see how this market goes through the balance of the summer.  

Closings:  Since it has been several months since my last message, there are far too many closings than I can reasonably recap here.  Let me just congrat all of you who have worked so hard to succeed in these difficult market conditions.  I would like to recognize the following agents who have been the most productive in company dollar contribution during the first six months of this year:
    Diane Krause, Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker, Sheila Deignan, Daniel Casabonne, Cheri Stanley, Deke Dekay and Diane Harris, Ann Amtower, Linda Alioto, David Barker, Faeli Vyn, Mike Caselli, Jane and Ron Pavelka, Robyn Makaruk and Lisa Albertson.