Broker Blog

From one of my favorite websites, www.wordsmith.org, comes the following as a wish to you for the year:

Philosopher John Locke (1632-1704) once said, "Our incomes are like our shoes; if too small, they gall and pinch us; but if too large, they cause us to stumble and to trip." In the new year, may your incomes be like a nice pair of shoes, not too small, but large enough to slip into and be comfortable.

Wine Country Group Summary for December, 2009 and for the full year – 2009

Frank Howard Allen Realtors, The Wine Country Group, closed 75 transaction sides in the December, 2009, more than in any December in our history. This is 36% more than we closed in December, 2008 (55) and a solid 200% more than we closed in December, 2007 (25). The dollar volume ($31M) was 24% ahead of the volume last December ($25M). Our open sales for the month (43) were slightly behind of that for December, 2008 (46), but our new listings for the month (36) were slightly ahead of that of a year ago (29). Our listing inventory (175 units) is 7% behind that of a year ago (187) while in most of our market areas, inventory is down as much as 20-60% year over year. The average asking price ($725,000) of our current listings is 3% higher than this time a year ago ($711,000). Our pending sales at the end of December (102 units) total $51M in transaction volume compared to 69 units and $36M a year ago. Our agents are working hard to keep us ahead of the competition in most of our markets in year over year productivity.

For the full year of 2009, we closed 764 sides compared to 628 in 2008 and 534 in 2007. This is the highest number of closings since 2004 when we closed 797 sides. So, we are well on the way to advancing our previous high water mark. Despite the rise in units, we were somewhat below in dollar volume (lower sales prices) in 2009. We achieved $317,000,000 in volume in 2009 compared to $355,000,000 in 2008 and compared to our high of $537,000,000 in 2005.

We remain solidly number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets. Frank Howard Allen Realtors achieved number one market share in dollar volume for 2009 in both Sonoma and Marin Counties when one includes all licensed offices (including The Wine Country Group) and corporately owned offices. This is a great achievement for the Sonoma County agents who we affectionately refer to as “Team One”.

In the past twelve months in the Sonoma Valley, we have closed twice as many transactions (239) as our nearest competitors and our agents have achieved a 27.7% market share in unit volume. For 2009, our Healdsburg agents have increased our market share to 26.8% from 19.6% in 2008 in unit volume.

Our Napa & St. Helena offices have generated a 64% increase in transaction sides (261) for 2009 compared to 2008. Our Napa County offices have increased their market share by 35% this year while our competitors have had flat or decreasing market share.

We will celebrate our many successes at our annual company “Kick-off” on January 29th and we will focus on “Moving Ahead” in 2010 and beyond.

December, 2009 - Market Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Napa County (536) was 24% below the inventory (706) at this time last year and is the lowest inventory of available homes since February of 2006, three and one half years ago. The decreasing trend in inventory has moderated, however, and it is reasonable to expect an increase in inventory in the spring of 2010 instead of the decline that we saw through all of 2009. New sales (129) were 32% ahead of the pace a year ago. The average price per square foot of the homes closed in December was $237/sf, an 18% increase since February when the per square foot price was $201.00. American Canyon has just 1.2 months supply of inventory and the town of Napa has 3.9 months – so it is Up Valley Napa County that has an overhang of inventory. 29% of the available inventory in the county remains “Up Valley” at the end of December.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville), had an inventory of 157 units at the end of December. This compares with 142 at the end of December, 2008, so it has been generally consistent throughout the year. Sales for the month (10) were the same as two months and were a bit below of the number of sales (13) posted in December, ‘08. The Up Valley market seems to be gaining some traction at the end of this year. Available listings in Up Valley represent 29% percent of the overall Napa County inventory, a relatively high percentage.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,093) in Sonoma County at the end of December was 40% lower than a year ago. New sales (471) in December were 8% ahead of the pace in December, 2008 (436). The median price of homes closed in December in Sonoma County was $350,000. This is 13% higher than the medium price of closed homes in December, 2008 ($310,000) and 23% above the low median price established in February of 2009 ($285,000).

Based on the current sales pace, there is only a 2.3 month supply of inventory.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (132) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of December was 21% below that for December, 2008. There were 31 new sales for the month compared to 34 a month ago and 27 in December, ‘08.

The median sales price for the 33 homes that closed in December was $486,000 compared to a median price of $429,000 a year ago and well ahead of the lowest median price ($313,000) set for the year in April of 2009. There were 33 closings in the Sonoma Valley in December and our Sonoma Valley offices closed 36 units. We obviously handled some outside of the Valley, but it seems we got a good share of the Valley closings for the month.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (63) in Healdsburg at the end of December was 22% below that of the available inventory (81) in December, ‘08. This is the lowest inventory in Healdsburg since March 0f 2006. New sales (14) remained steady in December. The Healdsburg market seems to have regained some momentum.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (38) at the end of December, 2009 was 49% lower than a year ago. Sales in Cloverdale for the month of December (9) was equal to that of a month ago and to that of December, 2008. The median price of the homes sold in Cloverdale in the month of December was $255,000, 14% lower than a year ago, but up 28% above the low for the year of $200,000 in March of 2009.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (41) at the end of December was 58% lower than the inventory (97) in December, 2008 and was the lowest inventory since May of 2005, four and a half years ago. There were 28 new sales of homes and condominiums in Windsor in December which is fairly consistent with the sales pace throughout the year. The current market has 1.5 months of supply based on the current sales pace. Prices have stabilized at slightly over $200 per square foot.

Solano County: Since we closed 102 homes in Solano County in 2009, we keep an eye on the trends there as well. Inventory stands at 736 units – 68% lower than in December ’08, but it has climbed in the last two months. New sales for the month of December totaled 565 units – 6% higher than last year. This creates just a 1.4 month supply of inventory at the current sales pace. The average price per square foot of closed homes for the month was $135.00, up 13% from the low of $119.00/sf registered in April of 2009.

Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

FHA Wine Country Group Kickoff:  Be sure to attend the 2010 Wine Country Group Kickoff on Friday, January 29, 8:30 am to 11:30 at the Oakmont Country Club.  Celebrations, Awards, Inspiration, Photos, Cheers and Tears - see you there!

Training:  Management training with Sandy Schaefer starts this Friday, January 15. Four sessions of leadership work to improve you skills and your business.

New training programs on the horizon.

Closings:  Closings for the last week of 2009 and the first week of 2010 include: Debby Hendershot (Healdsburg); Linda Alioto (St. Helena); Louis Horta (Napa); Ryan De Mello (Napa); Diane Litchfield (Sonoma); Mike Caselli (Sonoma); Mari Johnson (Sonoma); Joan Harrington (Sonoma); Jane and Ron Pavelka (Cloverdale); Pam Giusto (Sonoma); Aimee Greco (Napa) and the Foss Creek team of Susan Montgomery and Amanda Stampley (Healdsburg).

The following agents had two closings during this two week period: Steve and Marla Ericson (St. Helena); Liz Manfree (St. Helena); David Barker (Napa); Jana Jones (Healdsburg) and Cheri Stanley (Napa).

Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker of our Kenwood office had four closings and Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma office had five closings for these two weeks.

Well done for all and carry on in 2010!