Broker Blog

Wine Country Group Summary for January, 2010

We closed 67 transaction sides in the January, 2010. This is more than in any January in our history. This is 22% more than we closed in January, 2009 (55). Our dollar volume ($32M) was 60% ahead of the volume last January ($20M). Our open sales for the month (51) were 38% ahead of that for January, 2009 (37), and our new listings for the month (41) were 58% ahead of that of a year ago (26). Overall a very solid month which offers optimism moving into the new year. Our listing inventory (167 units) as of 2/8/10 is 6% behind that of a year ago (177) while in most of our market areas, inventory is down as much as 20-40% year over year. The average asking price ($838,000) of our current listings is 22% higher than this time a year ago ($689,000). Our pending sales as of 2/8/10 (109 units) total $50M in transaction volume compared to 70 units and $35M a year ago.

We remain solidly number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets. Our Napa office continues to improve on a year over year basis and is a solid number three in market share for the firms with major offices based in the Napa Valley. Our agents and staff are working hard to keep us ahead of the competition in most of our markets in year over year productivity.

January, 2010 - Market Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in Napa County (540) was 20% below the inventory (674) at this time last year. It was slightly higher than the inventory in December, 2009 (540) which is a reversal of a downward trend that persisted for over a year. It is reasonable to expect an increase in inventory as the spring market evolves. New sales (121) were 20% ahead of the pace a year ago. The average price per square foot of the homes closed in Napa County has stabilized at about $230/sf over the past several months.. American Canyon has just 1.4 months supply of inventory and the town of Napa has 4.4 months. Up Valley Napa County has a 12.7 month supply.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville), had an inventory of 152 units at the end of January. This compares with 140 at the end of January, 2009. The inventory has declined 28% from the high level of 210 units that occurred in June of last year. Sales for the month (12) were generally consistent with the pace of the past four months and better than that of a year ago, ‘08. The Up Valley market seems to be continuing to improve.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,126) in Sonoma County at the end of January was 32% lower than a year ago, but it was 3% higher than it was at the end of last month (1,093). We expect inventory to continue to climb as the spring market gets going. New sales (509) in January were 21% ahead of the pace in January, 2009 (421) and they were 24% ahead of the pace of last month (413). The median price of homes closed in December in Sonoma County was $340,000. This is 13% higher than the medium price of closed homes in January, 2009 ($300,000). The average price per square foot of sold homes has stabilized around $235-$240/sq. ft. Based on the current sales pace, there is only a 2.2 month supply of inventory.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (149) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of January was 10% below that for January, 2009 (166). It was 13% higher than that of last month (132) indicating a rising trend going into the spring. There were 30 new sales for the month which is pretty consistent with the sales pace over the past twelve months.

The median sales price for the 33 homes that closed in December was $428,000 22% higher than the median price of $350,000 a year ago and well ahead of the lowest median price ($313,000) set for the year in April of 2009. There were 24 closings in the Sonoma Valley in January and our Sonoma Valley offices closed 30 units. We obviously handled some outside of the Valley, but it seems we got a good share of the Valley closings for the month.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (64) in Healdsburg at the end of January was 16% below that of the available inventory (76) in January, ‘09. The inventory was equal to the 63 units that were available at the end of last month. New sales (9 dropped from the 14 in December and were equal to the pace of a year ago.. We’ll see if the spring market picks up the pace of both listings and sales.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (38) at the end of January, 2010 was 45% lower than a year ago (69) and was equal to that of a month ago. Sales for the month of January shot up to 17 from 8 a year ago and 9 last month. The median price of the homes sold in Cloverdale in the month of January was $270,000, 33% higher than a year ago, but there were only six closings in the month.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (42) at the end of January was 52% lower than the inventory (87) in January, 2009 and was equal to the inventory of last month. There were 40 new sales of homes and condominiums in Windsor in January which is jump up from the 22 new sales last month, but consistent with the 36 sales in January of 2009.. The current market has just 1.1 months of supply based on the current sales pace. Prices have stabilized at slightly over $200 to $210 per square foot.

Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Marketing Tip: Again borrowing from Rick DeLuca (http://www.RealEstateIdeaClub.com) he has some good counsel if the "market has you down - thinking slump". He cautions against finding yourself in an emotional slump but thinking it's a production slump. Rick suggests:

"You MUST do a few things specifically to ease this type of slump. Here are some suggestions to consider:

1. Consciously look for something positive EVERY DAY. Find something in the news, around the office, people you know, something you've read, anything
that can be categorized as positive. If you just let positive things enter your life on their own, you may be waiting a long while.

2. It's absolutely crucial you have a list each day of what precisely you need to accomplish. Have a short list to start with, if this is a new activity for you. Only five or six things that you really need to do today. At the end of the day give yourself the opportunity of looking down at your list and seeing a check mark by each task. You deserve to have a feeling of accomplishment, satisfaction or success on a daily basis. As a matter of fact - you need this!

3. As corny as it may sound, immerse yourself in positive books, CD's, podcasts, streaming video, anything that is positive in nature. It's difficult to maintain a negative mindset if you are consistently inputting positives. That's what it's all about.

4. Call someone who has been helpful to you and thank them for their support or whatever may be appropriate for them. Follow-up immediately with a handwritten note. It's very difficult to do a positive activity such as this and maintain a negative attitude.

Green Solution?: Have trouble keeping your flyer box stocked on your listing sign pole? Looks unprofessional and sloppy? Wasting paper throwing out wet and wilted flyers? Look into Flyer on a Chain - www.flyeronachain.com. A green, long lasting and low maintenance solution.

I'll cover closings in the next blog update, so keep your eye out!